16.10.2026 11:26
As the falling fertility rate, which President Erdoğan described as "an existential threat and disaster," dropped to 1.42, the report published by the Institute of Social Studies revealed that low-income families cannot make the decision to have a second child due to economic burden and care risks.
The report titled "Demographic Transformation and Strategies in Turkey," published by the Community Studies Institute, revealed the broad picture of Turkey's declining fertility rate, extending from family budgets to the social security system, and from the housing crisis to elderly care. The report showed that families cannot make the decision to have a second child not because they do not want children, but because of care, housing, and education costs and fears of job loss. It warned that if timely interventions are delayed due to shrinking generations, the cost will be much higher.
FERTILITY RATE DECLINED TO 1.42
According to the data included in the study, while Turkey's total fertility rate was at 2.19 children per woman in 2014, it declined to about 1.42 in 2025. The number of provinces remaining below 2.1, the accepted population replacement threshold, climbed to 76. Only Şanlıurfa (3.15), Şırnak (2.53), Mardin (2.23), Diyarbakır (2.14), and Siirt (2.11) remained above the replacement threshold.
While the fertility rate measured at 1.11 in Ankara, 1.14 in Istanbul, and 1.10 in Izmir remained well below the national average, the number of provinces below the 1.30 threshold defined in demography as "lowest-low fertility" reached 38. While the total fertility rate is estimated to fall below 1.30 in 2027-2028, the net reproduction rate was calculated as 0.68. This picture showed that each generation of women replaces the next generation by only two-thirds.
THE REAL BREAK OCCURS IN THE TRANSITION TO A SECOND CHILD
When fertility loss in the report was broken down into components, it was determined that of the 0.688-point loss in the 2013-2025 period, 34.8% stemmed from marriage, 22.3% from the decline in first births, and 36.4% from the weakening in the transition from the first child to the second. When the postponement effect was removed, the share of first births fell to 10.7%, while the share of transition to a second child climbed to 42.4%.
Especially in the 2021-2025 period, 75.9% of the total loss was seen to be associated with the weakening in the transition from the first child to the second. The fact that about 70% of couples who married in 2021 had their first child within the first three years of marriage proved that the inclination to have children after marriage was preserved, but that families took a step back after the first child. The rate of transition to a second child among women who had a first child fell from 0.906 in 2013 to 0.712 in 2025.
LOW-INCOME BUDGET GOES TO HOUSING AND FOOD
In the report based on 2025 Household Budget Survey data, it was stated that housing and rent made up 38.7% of the consumption expenditures of the lowest-income 20%, while food made up 29.2%. While the share of these two basic needs in the budget reached 67.9%, this rate remained at 38.1% in the highest-income group. The rental rate in the low-income group also rose from 24.5% to 36.7% between 2014 and 2024.
The increase in education expenditures also made families' calculations for a second child heavier. In August 2026, the annual price increase in education services stood at 53.44%, about 22 points above general inflation (31.51%). While the private schooling rate in formal education climbed to 9.1%, the rate of access to registered childcare in the 0-2 age group in Turkey remained below 1%, far behind the OECD average of 22%.
83% OF WORKERS CANNOT RECEIVE PROFESSIONAL CARE SERVICES
According to TurkStat data, 83% of workers with responsibility for caring for a child under the age of 15 cannot benefit from any professional care service; the rate of those using institutional care remains at 14%. When there is a child under the age of 3 in the household, the employment rate of women in the 25-49 age group falls to 26.9%, while this rate was measured at 90.9% for men. It was emphasized that families are squeezed between the cost of paid care and the income loss that would occur if the woman leaves her job.
THERE ARE 1.63 INSURED PERSONS PER RETIREE
In the report, which touched on the financing pressure in the social security system, it was conveyed that the Social Security Institution's active/passive insured ratio declined from 2.01 in 2022 to 1.591 in January 2026, and became 1.638 in June 2026 due to seasonal effects. It was stated that the EYT regulation increased the number of retirees, and that due to shrinking child cohorts, the population that will finance social security and undertake elderly care in the future will shrink.
33.7% DECLINE IN GIRL BIRTHS
In the report, it was announced that the annual number of girl births, which was 657,160 in 2014, declined by 33.7% in 2025 to 435,446. It was reported that this would also reduce the number of future prospective mothers. It was emphasized that the cohort of girls born between 2009 and 2018 is 25% larger than the 2019-2025 cohort, and therefore steps must be taken without missing the period when large cohorts transition to adulthood.
"SAFE START PROGRAM" AND 2030 EMPHASIS FOR A SOLUTION
The Community Studies Institute, instead of raising the fertility rate to 2.1 in a short time, proposed the 1.70-1.80 range as a realistic target and declared 2028-2030 as a critical threshold. Within the scope of the prepared "Safe Start Program," the prominent solution proposals were as follows:
- Special support for a second child: Shifting the weight in birth benefits to the second child and protecting payments against inflation.
- Care and housing: Increasing 0-3 age care capacity, providing social housing and rental social housing opportunities for young couples and families with one child.
- Gradual income tax reduction: Applying a gradual income tax reduction for registered working families from the second child onward throughout the child-rearing period.
- Care credit and retirement: Covering the contribution days and retirement rights lost by women who leave work due to childcare through a "care credit" model by the public sector, and supporting their return to work with daycare/care facilities.