05.11.2026 15:40
Professor Dr. Sefer Şener, a faculty member at Istanbul University, said that raising the minimum pension to 30,000 lira is possible, but the real solution is restructuring the pension system. Evaluating gold prices as well, Şener predicted that if the pressure created by energy prices and interest rate hikes is removed, gold could quickly surpass its previous peak of 5,400 dollars.
Prof. Dr. Sefer Şener was a guest on the Rotamız Ekonomi program hosted by Serpin Alparslan on Haberler.com. On the program, topics closely followed by investors and citizens were discussed, from the impact of the US elections on markets to the fund crisis, from inflation data to pensions.
“LET’S NOT TALK ABOUT THE LOWEST PENSION EVERY 6 MONTHS”
Evaluating the new regulation prepared for retirees and targeting retirees who have completed age 65 and have a high number of premium days and premium amounts paid, Şener said that continuously raising the lowest pension was not a permanent solution.
Noting that with this approach the number of retirees receiving the lowest pension has reached 6-7 million, Şener said, “Today we will talk about 30,000. When we reach the end of 6 months, this time we will say, will the lowest be 35,000? I say, let’s solve the problem at its root. Let the ministry restructure this pension system.” To the question of whether the lowest pension would rise to 30 thousand lira and above, he replied, “It could be.”
“SCISSORS” WARNING FOR THOSE PAYING HIGH PREMIUMS
Drawing attention to the grievance of retirees who pay high premiums, Şener gave an example. Noting that someone who pays a premium of 10 thousand lira a month for 30 years and someone who pays a premium of one thousand lira receive close pensions in retirement, Şener said, “While paying, you pay 10 times what I pay, but when receiving, you receive almost close to me.”
Arguing that while a 30-40 percent increase is made to low pensions, a 3-5 percent increase to high pensions closes the gap between them, Şener said that pensions should be increased in proportion to the premiums paid. Şener also emphasized that current retirees should not be victimized while this regulation is made.
“BEING RETIRED IS NOT AN ADVANTAGE TODAY”
Noting that upon retirement income in many sectors falls by half or even more, Şener said that for this reason many people have to work again after retiring and some turn to the informal economy.
Recalling that the revaluation rate linked to the producer price index was 27.41 percent, Şener stated that if no reduction is made, taxes, fees and penalties will be increased by this rate starting from January. Şener said, “When the state sets a rate of 27 percent on its receivables, people naturally think, ‘Let it also come to my salary above 27, and even let there be a little welfare share.’ This is quite natural.”
GOLD HAD RETREATED FROM $5,400 TO $3,800
At the hours when the program was held, ounce gold was trading at $4,125 with a 1.5 percent increase, while gram gold was trading at 6,640 lira with a 1.6 percent rise. Gram gold has gained 11 percent since the beginning of the year and 24 percent in the last year.
Şener recalled that gold was at the $5,400 level before the intervention against Iran and fell to as low as $3,800 last week. Stating that the main reason for this decline was the rise in energy prices, Şener said that rising energy prices brought with them inflation expectations and this, in turn, brought interest rate increases. Şener said, “An increase in interest rates means a decline in gold prices and silver prices. Because interest is an alternative to gold.”
“CENTRAL BANKS BUY WHETHER IT RISES OR FALLS”
Stating that the reason gold did not fall more sharply despite this pressure was central bank purchases, Şener said that in the last 3 years, central banks of countries such as China, Russia, India and Türkiye have reduced their dollar reserves and increased their gold reserves. Şener also claimed that some European countries are moving their gold assets in the US due to security concerns.
“WE MAY SEE THE UPWARD TREND AGAIN”
In his assessment of gold’s future course, Şener said that if the pressure created by energy prices and interest rate increases disappears, the upward trend could be seen again. Stating that central banks will continue their purchases, Şener predicted that in this case it would be possible for gold to quickly surpass the $5,400 level it had previously seen.
However, emphasizing that this depends on how quickly energy prices retreat, Şener recalled that oil prices were at the $110 level in previous weeks and today fell to the $88-90 levels. He noted that the results of the US midterm elections pulled energy prices down and supported the rise in stock markets, with the expectation that Trump could step back in his trade and Iran policies.