05.08.2026 13:32
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that liquidity following a potential credit crisis in artificial intelligence infrastructure could drive Bitcoin to $1 million. This scenario is based on Hayes' personal opinion, and current data does not yet indicate a credit crisis.
In his article titled "Situationship," Hayes argued that a potential collapse in AI infrastructure would resemble the 2008 credit crisis more than the 2000 internet bubble. According to the executive, investors view spending on data centers as highly profitable technology investments. Hayes, however, compares these expenditures to leveraged real estate investments.
According to Hayes, the land, buildings, energy connections, and cooling systems of data centers resemble a construction project. The processors inside them, meanwhile, lose value as newer and more efficient chips are released.
The executive believes that banks, insurance companies, and private credit funds will continue financing data center construction even when profitable demand begins to slow. He argues that losses will emerge when weak projects fail to generate enough cash to cover debt, rent, and interest obligations, and that stress could spread to lenders even if leading tech companies remain profitable. Hayes predicts that growth in AI spending will slow in the second half of 2027, with effects becoming evident in 2028.
Hayes's Bitcoin scenario is based on the policy response he expects. According to the executive, the U.S. will protect strategically important AI companies and their lenders because computing capacity has become part of economic competition with China. Hayes believes the monetary expansion this intervention would create could support Bitcoin. The executive predicted that Bitcoin might first stay between $60,000 and $70,000, could fall to $50,000, and then rise toward $1 million. These levels are not presented as guaranteed targets. They are described as scenarios contingent on the conditions Hayes expects. Hayes also predicted that Ethereum would reach $5,000 by the end of the year and stated that his own fund, Maelstrom, plans to build positions accordingly.
NO CREDIT CRISIS IN BIG TECH YET IN 2026
Recent company results do not indicate a collapse in AI spending. Alphabet made $44.9 billion in capital expenditures in the second quarter and raised its 2026 investment forecast from a range of $180 billion to $190 billion to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion. Google Cloud revenue also rose 82% year over year, reaching $24.8 billion.
Microsoft's quarterly capital expenditures rose to $41 billion, while cloud revenue increased 27% to $59.3 billion. Amazon's cloud unit, AWS, grew revenue by 37%, recording its fastest growth in 18 quarters.
However, the picture is moving in two directions. Amazon's trailing twelve-month free cash flow turned to a deficit of $7.6 billion, largely due to an additional $66.1 billion in investments tied to AI. While strong cloud growth weakens the thesis that demand has collapsed, declining cash flow and rising obligations suggest construction spending could create financial pressure. High spending alone does not create a credit crisis. Such a crisis requires weakened cash generation, refinancing problems, and defaults across multiple companies and lenders. Disclosed documents, however, do not show widespread defaults or a government bailout program.
Rent commitments in AI infrastructure are also drawing attention. According to a news agency compilation, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed approximately $1.09 trillion in payments for data center leases, most of which have not yet begun. This amount is nearly four times the approximately $285 billion in lease obligations these companies have already recognized on their balance sheets. However, this figure does not count as direct debt and represents undiscounted payments spread over many years.
Private financing is also becoming more visible in U.S. data center projects. Meta and BlackRock formed a partnership for a campus in El Paso, Texas, representing an investment exceeding $10 billion. Meta's earlier partnership with Blue Owl Capital involved a data center campus in Louisiana worth approximately $27 billion. In that project, part of the external financing was provided through debt privately sold to PIMCO and other bond investors.
Financial pressure varies from company to company. According to one analysis, Oracle's debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at approximately 4.3 times. At Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, this ratio remains below one. Andrew Chang, an S&P Global analyst, noted that Oracle's data center leases, lasting 15 to 19 years, carry significant risk because customer contracts last at most five years.
FED HOLDS RATES STEADY: NO BAILOUT PACKAGE
The government intervention on which Hayes's scenario is based has not materialized so far. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy rate steady in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. The decision was made by a vote of 9 to 3. The Fed did not announce a bailout fund, emergency credit program, or new asset purchase plan for AI companies.
The Fed is conducting Treasury bill purchases to maintain adequate reserves in the banking system. According to the July report, these purchases have reached approximately $250 billion since the start of January. However, the operations are not officially defined as monetary expansion or a bailout program. Hayes views the balance sheet growth and steady rates as supportive for future market liquidity, but this interpretation is open to debate.
In the short term, the situation could also unfold opposite to Hayes's expectations. In the initial phase of a credit shock, Bitcoin could lose value as investors sell liquid assets and reduce leverage. A potential recovery would remain dependent on the scale and speed of monetary support and on sustained Bitcoin demand. The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16. Unless demand for AI companies weakens or financing stress becomes apparent, Hayes's argument will remain a forward-looking Bitcoin thesis based on a credit crisis that has not yet occurred.