20.12.2024 20:30
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the Market Participants Survey for December. According to the survey results, the consumer inflation (CPI) expectation increased to 45.28% compared to the previous survey period. The year-end inflation expectation also rose to 45.28%. Additionally, the exchange rate expectation was set at 35.30 TL.
The Central Bank published the Market Participants Survey for December 2024. Accordingly, while the participants' year-end dollar/TL and growth expectations decreased, inflation expectations increased. The survey also indicated expectations for an interest rate cut by the end of the year.
The participants' year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation for the current year was 44.81% in the previous survey period, while it increased to 45.28% in this survey period. The CPI expectation for 12 months later was 27.20% in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 27.07% in this survey period. The CPI expectation for 24 months later was 18.33% and 18.47% in the respective survey periods.
DECREASE IN INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS
The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 50.00% in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 48.59% in this survey period. The Central Bank's one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the end of the current month was 50.00% in the previous survey period, while it was realized as 48.51% in this survey period.
INCREASES IN EXCHANGE RATE
The participants' year-end exchange rate (USD/TL) expectation for the current year was 35.72 TL in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 35.30 TL in this survey period. The exchange rate expectation for 12 months later was 42.75 TL in the previous survey period, while it increased to 43.23 TL in this survey period.
The participants' GDP growth expectation for 2024 was 3.1% in the previous survey period, while it decreased to 3.0% in this survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2025 was 3.2% in the previous survey period, while it changed to 3.1% in this survey period.