22.07.2026 10:40
Following the "absolute nullity" crisis in the CHP, Özgür Özel, who announced he would leave his party of 34 years to form a new political movement, has seen this move reflected in polls. According to the latest study by AREA Research, the "New Party" that Özel will establish would directly become the main opposition in a possible election. Özel had also stated in his announcement yesterday, "We are becoming the main opposition party in the Turkish Grand National Assembly by a clear margin."
After Özgür Özel announced that he would leave the CHP and establish a new party, AREA Research asked voters about the new situation in Turkish politics. According to information brought to columnist Aytunç Erkin's column by Nefes; In the research conducted between July 11-15, 2026, in 81 provinces and 183 districts (considering rural-urban distinction) with 2,030 people aged 18 and over, voters were asked questions about the position of the new party, approval ratings of leaders, and a possible election.
EXPECTED POSITION OF THE NEW PARTY ON THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM
When the voters participating in the survey were asked, "Where should the new party be located on the political spectrum?", it was seen that the voters' expectation was more of a centrist stance. The distribution of responses was as follows:
- Center Left: 35.8%
- Center: 30.7%
- Center Right: 9.4%
LEADER APPROVAL RATINGS
The research also scrutinized voters' opinions on political figures. 45.9% of participants stated that they had a favorable opinion of Özgür Özel.
Evaluating this data in his column, Aytunç Erkin noted that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's favorable opinion rate was 47.9%, highlighting that Özel is on the rise and about to catch up with Erdoğan. On the other hand, the fact that Mansur Yavaş's favorable opinion rate was at a quite high level of 60.6% in the same research was among the prominent details of the survey.
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHICH PARTY WOULD GET HOW MANY VOTES?
The data that would most stir the political arena was the response to the question, "If elections were held today, who would you vote for?" According to the survey, the new party to be established under the leadership of Özgür Özel leaves the current CHP behind in vote share, placing second.
Here are the current vote shares of the parties according to the research:
- AK Party: 34.2%
- Özgür Özel's New Party: 19.4%
- CHP: 11.8%
- DEM Party: 8.7%
- MHP: 8.1%
- İYİ Party: 6.0%
- Victory Party: 3.5%
- Key Party: 2.6%
- TİP: 2.3%
- New Welfare Party: 2.1%
- Other: 1.4%
ÖZGÜR ÖZEL: WE ARE BECOMING THE MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY OF THE PARLIAMENT
Republican People's Party leader Özgür Özel spoke at his party's group meeting. In his speech, Özel clearly announced that they would establish a new party. Saying, "We are leaving behind sterile debates, endless polarizations, the language that pits people against each other, the understanding that turns the state into a party, attempts to design politics through law, and the fear, silence, and hopelessness this creates, and we are courageously confronting those who do these things," Özel stated, "We are establishing our new party by taking its first step with the deputies chosen by our nation, to whom it has entrusted its authority. Have no doubt that we are becoming the main opposition party of the Turkish Grand National Assembly by a wide margin."