05.07.2026 18:41
The ounce of gold rose 2.5% last week to $4,175, pleasing investors, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and reduced likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. This marked the first weekly gain in five weeks for the ounce price.
The ounce of gold started July positively, driven by positive effects from optimism regarding the US non-farm employment data and geopolitical developments.
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
US non-farm employment increased by 57,000 in June, significantly below market expectations. While employment continued to rise in professional and business services, social assistance, and healthcare sectors, job losses were seen in the leisure and hospitality industry. The April increase in non-farm employment was revised from 179,000 to 148,000, and the May increase from 172,000 to 129,000.
The US unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June. Market expectations were for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%, as in May. This supported pricing that the Fed could act more flexibly on its interest rate path in the future, leading investors to lower their rate hike expectations.
FIRST RISE IN OUNCE OF GOLD IN 5 WEEKS
With this development, reduced demand for the dollar supported precious metal prices, especially gold. Following weaker-than-expected US employment data, the ounce of gold rose 2.5% on a weekly basis to $4,175 after 5 weeks, recording its first weekly gain, as Fed rate hike expectations decreased.
Meanwhile, oil prices falling to pre-war levels due to reduced geopolitical tensions also supported gold prices, while investors moving away from risky assets due to declines in tech stocks last week also contributed to the price rise.
Concerns that geopolitical developments in the Middle East would strengthen inflationary pressures, and these concerns increasing 'hawkish' expectations toward the Fed, were effective in the decline of gold prices this year, with the ounce of gold losing 7.1% in the first half of the year.
“GOLD HAS NOT YET REGAINED THE MOMENTUM IT CAUGHT EARLY IN THE YEAR”
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at Australia-based KCM Trade Global, stated in his assessment on the matter that gold benefited from the slight decline in the dollar this week.
Noting that the weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data somewhat curbed the dollar's momentum and contributed to gold's rise, Waterer said, "The non-farm employment data, coming in below an increase of 100,000, reduced the urgency for the Fed's rate hikes to some extent, which provided support for gold in terms of yield."
Waterer noted that oil prices remain at low levels, which also supports gold from an inflation perspective.
Emphasizing that it was a better week for gold but it has not yet regained the momentum it caught early in the year, Waterer commented, "For gold to further increase its upward momentum, the dollar will need to depreciate even more."