08.11.2026 16:20
Different formulas are being worked on in Ankara for the January 2027 pension increase. SGK Expert İsa Karakaş argued that the strongest option on the table is an increase model based on the amount of premiums paid by the pensioner. With October inflation, the four-month increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners has reached 8.29 percent, while it is stated that welfare share and equal increase options are also being evaluated.
Millions of retirees are eyeing the January increase. While the government signals a regulation that will cover all retirees, the formulas and salary calculations being discussed behind the scenes are also beginning to become clear.
“THE INCREASES WILL BE FINALIZED IN THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY”
Social Security Institution (SGK) expert İsa Karakaş said in his assessment on TGRT Haber that all scenarios regarding the retiree increase are being worked on in Ankara. Karakaş stated that he does not expect the regulation to come to Parliament in November. Expressing that the law could come at the end of December or the beginning of January, Karakaş said, “The increases will only be finalized in the first week of January.”
STRONGEST FORMULA: INCREASE BASED ON PREMIUMS
According to what Karakaş reported, the strongest scenario standing out in Ankara is that the additional increase would be made not according to the retiree’s age or whether they are working, but according to the amount of premiums they paid. If this model is implemented, different increase rates could come onto the agenda among retirees depending on the duration and amount of premium payments.
OBJECTION TO DISTINCTION BETWEEN WORKING AND NON-WORKING RETIREES
One of the options discussed behind the scenes is to make the additional increase only for non-working retirees. Karakaş argued that this model does not align with the structure of the social security system. Emphasizing that SGK is not a social assistance institution but an insurance system, Karakaş reminded that approximately 2 million 200 thousand retirees continue to work and pay premiums into the system.
FLAT INCREASE AND WELFARE SHARE ALSO ON THE TABLE
Karakaş stated that the flat increase option has not completely left the agenda, and that work is also being carried out on how much the welfare share will be. Karakaş expressed that the final formula will become clear after year-end inflation data and the regulation to be made by the government.
“ALL RETIREES” MESSAGE FROM THE GOVERNMENT
Statements regarding the regulation also came from the government side. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said that work is being done covering all retirees and that different alternatives are being evaluated. Yılmaz announced that the regulation will be submitted to Parliament before the new year. Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan also stated that the regulation regarding retiree pensions will cover all retirees.
4-MONTH INCREASE RATE 8.29 PERCENT
The January increase for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees is determined according to the 6-month inflation for the July-December period. According to data announced by TÜİK on November 3, inflation in October was 2.58 percent monthly and 29.77 percent annually. With monthly increases of 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August, 1.84 percent in September and 2.58 percent in October, the 4-month cumulative inflation reached 8.29 percent.
In the Central Bank’s Market Participants Survey, there is an inflation expectation of 1.18 percent for November and 0.97 percent for December. If these expectations materialize, it is calculated that the January increase for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be 10.62 percent.
HOW MUCH WILL THE LOWEST RETIREE PENSION BE?
The lowest retiree pension is currently 23,552 lira. This amount does not increase automatically; it is determined by a legislative amendment submitted to Parliament each period. If the 10.62 percent increase is reflected, the lowest pension is expected to rise to 26,053 lira.
If a 5-point welfare share is added to this amount, the lowest monthly pension will rise to 27,355 lira. With a 10-point welfare share, the lowest monthly pension will be 28,658 lira; at 15 points, 29,960 lira; and at 20 points, 31,263 lira.
INFLATION DIFFERENCE FOR CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES IS 1.20 PERCENT
With October inflation, the 7 percent collective bargaining increase that civil servants and civil servant retirees received for the second half of 2026 was exceeded, and an inflation difference of 1.20 percent emerged. This difference is expected to increase with November and December inflation. According to calculations, it is stated that the lowest civil servant retiree pension could rise from 31,526 lira to approximately 33,500 lira.
The exact increase rate that retirees will receive in January will become clear when December inflation is announced at the beginning of January.