06.09.2026 11:50
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, while announcing the new Medium-Term Program, said that the direct and indirect impact of the war on inflation in Turkey has been calculated at approximately 7 points. Stating that the war conditions create supply-side pressure, Yılmaz announced that the energy import expectation has been raised from 63 billion dollars to 71 billion dollars.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium-Term Program, which includes targets for the next three years of the Turkish economy.
In the program's introduction, Yılmaz devoted significant space to uncertainties in the global economy and the economic consequences of the ongoing war in the region, sharing a striking figure regarding the extent of its impact, particularly on inflation.
WAR'S IMPACT ON INFLATION IS 7 POINTS
Stating that significant progress has been made in the fight against inflation, Yılmaz said that inflation, which rose to 75.5 percent in May 2024, has entered a downward trend with the policies implemented.
However, Yılmaz noted that the war conditions negatively affected this process, and said:
"The downward trend in inflation has temporarily flattened due to supply-side pressures caused by the war conditions. According to our Central Bank, the direct and indirect effects of the war on inflation have been calculated at approximately 7 points."
INFLATION FORECAST RAISED TO 28.4 PERCENT
Within the scope of the new Medium-Term Program, the year-end inflation forecast for 2026 was announced as 28.4 percent. The government targets inflation to fall to 21 percent in 2027, 13.5 percent in 2028, and 9 percent in 2029.
Yılmaz stated that the war and increasing geopolitical risks have also been effective on energy costs. He announced that the energy import forecast, previously estimated at 63 billion dollars for 2026, has been raised to 71 billion dollars.
GROWTH FORECAST ALSO UPDATED
In the Medium-Term Program, the growth forecast for 2026 was also revised down to 3.3 percent. The economy is projected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2027, 4.6 percent in 2028, and 5 percent in 2029.
Yılmaz also said that by the end of 2026, national income is expected to exceed 1.8 trillion dollars for the first time, and per capita national income to exceed 20 thousand dollars.
In the new program period, it is aimed to create approximately 2.1 million additional jobs and to raise national income above 2.2 trillion dollars by the end of the period.