06.11.2026 13:54
Doğuş University faculty member Prof. Dr. Semra Boğa Şahin evaluated inflation, interest rate policy, gold prices, exchange rates, pensions, and the fund crisis in special statements she made to Haberler.com. Noting that it is still early for a permanent decline in inflation, Şahin said that the level of 7,500 lira per gram of gold could be seen, while there could be a decline toward 3,500 dollars per ounce of gold.
Prof. Dr. Semra Boğa Şahin, a faculty member at Doğuş University, answered Melis Yaşar's questions on Haberler.com. Evaluating the latest developments in the Turkish economy, Şahin stated that inflation could rise above 30 percent again and emphasized that a high-interest-rate policy alone is not a permanent solution. Şahin, who also issued important warnings to gold investors, said that geopolitical developments continue to be decisive in global markets.
"IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT A NEW PERIOD OF INFLATION INCREASE HAS BEGUN"
Evaluating October inflation data, Prof. Dr. Şahin said that the increase in the supply of vegetables and fruit during the summer months pulled food prices down, but this effect has begun to reverse.
Drawing attention to the slowdown observed in the services sector and in rent increases, Şahin stated that the following month's data must also be evaluated before saying that inflation has entered a renewed upward trend.
Şahin pointed out that the rise in oil prices and ongoing geopolitical risks could keep inflation in the 29-30 percent range.
"INFLATION COULD RISE ABOVE 30 PERCENT"
To the question of whether inflation in Turkey could rise above 30 percent again, Şahin answered, "It could."
Şahin, noting that rising costs, especially in agricultural production, are putting pressure on prices, drew attention to the increase in fertilizer, diesel, and grain prices.
Stating that a few months of data are not enough to speak of a permanent decline in inflation, Şahin said that a period of at least three to four months must be monitored and the risks feeding price increases must be eliminated.
Şahin also considered it dangerous that households' inflation expectation is above 40 percent, and explained that citizens bringing their shopping forward due to the belief that prices will rise in the future could increase demand and therefore prices.
"HIGH-INTEREST-RATE POLICY IS NOT A PERMANENT SOLUTION"
Evaluating the Central Bank's tight monetary policy as well, Şahin said that the high-interest-rate practice is a temporary method that buys time for carrying out structural reforms in the economy.
Emphasizing that production must be increased in the fight against inflation, Şahin stated that constricting demand could lead to contraction in the manufacturing sector and to job losses.
Predicting that interest rate cuts may continue in the coming period, Şahin said that the pace of cuts will depend on inflation data, foreign currency demand, and geopolitical developments.
Saying that the Central Bank may act more cautiously with interest rate cuts, Şahin mentioned that half-point steps could be on the agenda instead of one-point cuts.
"RETIREES SHOULD RECEIVE AN INCREASE ABOVE INFLATION"
Making assessments about the raises to be made to civil servant and retiree salaries, Şahin said that granting only the inflation difference would not be enough.
Recalling that there are different practices in the pension system, such as the base salary and the number of contribution days, Şahin stated that fairness must be observed in salary arrangements.
Also evaluating the possibility of the 25,000-lira flat payment that has come onto the agenda, Şahin said that he finds this amount high, but that the loss of welfare experienced by retirees must definitely be taken into account.
While Şahin did not share a precise raise rate, he argued that an increase above inflation should be made.
"THE FUND CRISIS AFFECTED NOT ONLY INVESTORS BUT THE ENTIRE MARKET"
Also touching on the fund crisis that occurred recently, Şahin said that the incident was not limited to material losses and that trust in the financial system had also been seriously damaged.
Recalling the 2001 banking crisis, Şahin stated that similar losses of confidence could drive citizens away from the financial system.
Stating that the fund crisis also negatively affected stock market investors, Şahin mentioned that even people who invest in sound companies experienced losses due to sell-offs in the market.
Evaluating the initial payment of 250,000 lira to some investors, Şahin emphasized that more transparent communication should be carried out regarding the payment schedule and amounts.
Stating that he thinks the fund victims may recover most of their receivables, Şahin shared his expectation that especially the amounts in money market funds could be repaid with limited losses.
"RISES IN GOLD COULD BE SELLING OPPORTUNITIES"
Prof. Dr. Şahin, making striking forecasts regarding the gold market, said that no investment instrument in global financial markets can be considered a completely safe haven.
Arguing that gold rose very rapidly in the previous period and that this rise was not healthy, Şahin stated that the high-interest-rate environment puts pressure on gold prices.
Stating that rises toward $4,500 per ounce could be seen in gold from time to time, Şahin said that he considers these movements selling opportunities.
Şahin mentioned that in the long term, gold per ounce could decline again toward the $3,500 level and that there is a possibility it could trade sideways for a long time.
"GRAM GOLD COULD GO TO 7,500 LIRA"
Also speaking about gram gold prices, Şahin emphasized that the dollar/TL exchange rate is an important determinant for investors in Turkey.
Predicting that the 7,500-lira level could be seen in gram gold, Şahin said that the timing of this expectation depends on geopolitical developments.
Stating that it is not easy for gram gold to fall below 6,000 lira, Şahin said that this level could form a psychological boundary.
Mentioning that tensions between the US and Iran in particular will be decisive for the future of gold, Şahin emphasized that it is difficult to make precise price forecasts before the course of the war becomes clear.
"THE SITUATION IS HARDER FOR THOSE WHO BOUGHT GOLD AT A HIGH PRICE"
Addressing gold investors as well, Şahin said that the purchase cost and the purpose of the investment should be decisive in investment decisions.
Stating that the situation of investors who have regularly saved gold for many years is different from that of those who bought at high prices, Şahin said that low-cost, long-term investors can keep their gold.
He said that those who save gold to buy a house or car, however, could take advantage of possible periods of increase.
"DOLLAR/TRY REMAINS UNDER THE CENTRAL BANK'S CONTROL"
Evaluating the volatility in the foreign exchange markets as well, Şahin noted that the US dollar has strengthened not only against the Turkish lira but also against other currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen.
Saying that the foreign currency demand of companies and individuals in Turkey continues, Şahin stated that changes in export revenues also affect the foreign exchange market.
Noting that the Central Bank allows the depreciation of the Turkish lira in a controlled manner, Şahin said that the current volatility does not mean that very sharp exchange rate increases will occur.
Evaluating the Central Bank's reserve position as well, Şahin argued that it is in a position to control movements in the foreign exchange market.
"TRUST IN FINANCIAL MARKETS MUST BE RESTORED"
At the end of his statements, drawing attention to the psychological effects of the fund crisis on investors, Şahin said that the process experienced affected not only those directly victimized but also their families and other market investors.
Emphasizing that trust in financial markets must be restored, Şahin stated that he believes investors' grievances will be addressed.
Şahin, noting that economic developments should be closely followed, drew attention to the importance of investors maintaining their psychological resilience during the process.