16.10.2026 12:25
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the October Market Participants Survey. According to the survey, the year-end inflation expectation rose from 29.61 percent to 29.63 percent, while the October inflation expectation rose from 1.97 percent to 2.11 percent. Participants' year-end USD/TRY expectation was 51.5471, while the growth expectation for the current year declined from 3 percent to 2.9 percent. The first meeting expectation for the policy rate was 36 percent.
In the CBRT's October Market Participants Survey, year-end and 12-month-ahead inflation expectations rose, while the 24-month-ahead expectation declined.
OCTOBER INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED
The CBRT announced the results of the October Market Participants Survey, which it conducted with 71 participants consisting of representatives of the real and financial sectors and professionals. Accordingly, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase expectation, which was 1.97 percent last month, rose to 2.11 percent in this survey period.
24-MONTH-AHEAD EXPECTATION DECLINED
The year-end increase expectation for CPI rose from 29.61 percent to 29.63 percent, and the 12-month-ahead expectation rose from 23.70 percent to 23.89 percent. The inflation expectation for 24 months ahead, however, declined from 18.32 percent to 17.94 percent.
YEAR-END USD/TRY EXPECTATION 51.5471
Participants' year-end USD/TRY expectation fell from 51.5716 to 51.5471. The 12-month-ahead USD/TRY expectation, however, rose from 58.6049 to 59.2596.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT EXPECTATION 48.5 BILLION DOLLARS
The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was 50.1 billion dollars in the previous survey period, declined to 48.5 billion dollars. The current account deficit expectation for next year also fell from 44.4 billion dollars to 43.8 billion dollars.
GROWTH EXPECTATION FOR THE CURRENT YEAR DECLINED
In the survey, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the current year declined from 3 percent to 2.9 percent. The growth expectation for next year was 3.9 percent.
POLICY RATE EXPECTATIONS
The expectation for the CBRT's first meeting regarding the policy rate was 36 percent. The second meeting expectation fell to 35 percent, the third meeting expectation to 34.35 percent, and the policy rate expectation for 12 months ahead also fell to 29.01 percent.