"Earthquake warning of 7.4 from Serkan İçelli, who is aware of the February 6 earthquakes."

03.07.2025 18:17

Seismologist Serkan İçelli, who gained attention for predicting the earthquakes on February 6, stated that Bursa and Yalova could be affected by earthquakes of magnitudes 6.5 and 6.8. İçelli said, "If our İznik, Mekece, and Geyve line is active, we have a seismic gap there. We always need to be prepared for a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in that area."

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Recently, earthquakes measuring 3.9, 4.2, and 4.3 have occurred in the Gemlik district of Bursa, causing concern among the residents of the area.

EYES TURNED BACK TO MARMARA

The tremors centered in Gemlik were felt in neighboring provinces such as Yalova, some districts of Istanbul, Balıkesir, and Kocaeli, redirecting attention to the fault lines in the Marmara Region.

"WE MUST ALWAYS BE PREPARED FOR A 7.4 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE"

Seismologist and Mining Technology and Earth Sciences Engineer Serkan İçelli, who drew attention by predicting the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake that occurred on February 6, 2023, which caused significant destruction, as well as the second major earthquake that happened half an hour later, made statements regarding the issue, expressing that more caution should be taken towards the Avcılar segment, and said, "If our İznik, Mekece, and Geyve line is active, we have a seismic gap there. We must always be prepared for a 7.4 magnitude earthquake there."

"CAN PRODUCE EARTHQUAKES UP TO 6.8"

Making statements about the Merzifon-Esençay fault, Serkan İçelli stated that this fault affects the Amasya, Tokat, and Çorum regions, saying, "If we look at the sequential earthquakes in the North Anatolian fault from 1939 to 1942 and 1943, we do not expect a very large earthquake in the North Anatolian fault again. Because the annual slip rate here is 2.5 centimeters, and the accumulated deformation energy is between 6.2 and 6.4. The adjacent Merzifon-Esençay fault, which particularly affects the Amasya, Tokat, and Çorum regions, can produce earthquakes up to 6.8 if it becomes active," he said.

"THESE ARE RISKY AREAS"

Indicating that the earthquakes in Istanbul are a sign that it is a risky area, İçelli stated, "The northern branch of our North Anatolian fault passes through Istanbul, and our southern branch goes down from the Armutlu block of Yalova. These are risky areas. The recent earthquakes in Istanbul show that it is a risky area. We had previously mentioned the earthquake on the Kumburgaz segment, and that earthquake occurred. After this, we need to be more cautious towards the Avcılar segment. The Avcılar segment has the capacity to produce a 6.5 magnitude earthquake. However, I never consider a scenario of an earthquake over 7 in Istanbul," he said.

"LET'S TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS IF AN EARTHQUAKE WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW"

İçelli continued his remarks as follows: "As we move down towards the southern branch, the earthquakes here will be of a magnitude that can reach 6.5 and 6.8. Bursa and Yalova will be significantly affected. If our İznik, Mekece, and Geyve line is active, there is a seismic gap there. We must always be prepared for a 7.4 magnitude earthquake there. My advice to people is to live as if there will never be an earthquake, but to take precautions as if there will be an earthquake tomorrow."