13.11.2026 09:20
In a study published in 1960 by scientist Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues, it was predicted that a major disaster would occur on November 13, 2026, due to the uncontrolled increase in the world population. The day indicated by the calculation made exactly 66 years ago has arrived today. However, it has been revealed that the doomsday prediction, which is being debated again in the scientific world, is a mathematical scenario created to draw attention to population growth rather than a real disaster.
The striking prediction put forward in the scientific world 66 years ago, which gave a precise date for the end of humanity, is being debated again today. In a study published in 1960 by Austrian-born scientist Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues, it was claimed that on Friday, November 13, 2026, humanity would face disaster due to population growth. As calendars now show that date, the question of why the calculation that caused a great stir years ago did not come true has also come back onto the agenda.
66 YEARS AGO THEY POINTED TO TODAY
Heinz von Foerster, who worked at the University of Illinois, and two colleagues published an extraordinary study on the future of the human population in the prestigious scientific journal Science in 1960.
By examining the increasingly accelerating growth of the world population with a mathematical model, the researchers identified November 13, 2026, as the critical threshold.
According to the conclusion reached by the model, if population growth continued at the same rate, the number of humans would theoretically reach infinity and the world would reach a point where humanity could not sustain life.
While describing this striking scenario, von Foerster stated that future generations would be crushed and die due to overpopulation.
THE SURPRISING DETAIL BEHIND THE DOOMSDAY DATE
One of the most remarkable aspects of the study was that the date November 13, 2026, was not chosen at random. This date coincided with the 115th birthday of von Foerster, who was born in 1911.
However, the study was not scientific evidence showing that the world would definitively end in the sense understood today.
By specifically using a mathematical model that reached an infinite population result on a finite date, von Foerster wanted to emphasize that the population growth rate of the period was unsustainable.
In other words, that date was less a real doomsday prediction than a striking mathematical scenario put forward to draw attention to the dangers of uncontrolled population growth.
THE WORLD POPULATION WENT IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED
Other studies arguing that population growth would drag humanity into a great disaster were also published in the 1960s and 1970s.
Biologist Paul Ehrlich's 1968 book The Population Bomb drew attention to the danger of mass famine, while the 1972 report The Limits to Growth addressed the long-term consequences of population growth and resource consumption.
However, in the following years, the structure of the world population changed in a way different from the assumptions of early models.
With rising education levels, improved healthcare, and better living conditions, birth rates fell in many countries. The fact that the population under 15 worldwide peaked in 2021 was also one of the important indicators of this change.
Today, in countries such as Japan, Hungary, Türkiye, and China, policies encouraging people to have children are being implemented due to low birth rates and an aging population.
TODAY IS NOVEMBER 13, 2026! WHAT DOES THE SCIENTIFIC WORLD SAY?
The date indicated by the calculation put forward 66 years ago has arrived today. However, the model scientists used at that time does not align with today's demographic realities.
In an assessment published in The Independent, it is emphasized that this historical example is an important lesson for understanding the limits of scientific predictions.
According to the assessment, the results of mathematical models depend directly on the assumptions used. Therefore, even the most striking predictions about the future should not be treated as certain facts.
A WARNING REMAINS FROM THE DOOMSDAY PROPHECY
The model von Foerster put forward in 1960 is not accepted today as a valid scientific prediction foretelling the end of humanity.
On the other hand, the study continues to be discussed regarding how disaster scenarios for the future are constructed and why uncertainty is important in scientific forecasts.
November 13, 2026, stands out not as the day humanity came to an end, but as the date on which a striking prediction put forward 66 years ago is being questioned anew.