02.04.2026 11:13
After the 2.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Istanbul yesterday, attention has once again turned to the possible Marmara earthquake. Seismologist Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy stated, "No one has asked what is needed for an earthquake of magnitude 8 to occur. A fault of 500 kilometers needs to break. So, how long is the Marmara? 150 kilometers. We need three Marmaras."
Seismologist Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy made statements to DHA reporter regarding the possible Istanbul earthquake while visiting a relative in the İznik district of Bursa.
Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy stated that the claims of an 8 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul do not reflect the truth, pointing out the length of the Marmara Region and referring to the earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş on February 6. Üşümezsoy said, "They made a big fuss about Istanbul because some French people worked on it. They said, '180 kilometers of fault will break, there will be an 8 magnitude earthquake.' But no one asked what is needed for an 8 magnitude earthquake. A 500-kilometer fault needs to break. So, how long is the Marmara? 150 kilometers. We need three Marmaras. In the February 6 earthquake, one end of the fault started from Adıyaman and went towards Pötürge, while the other end started from Pazarcık and went towards Antakya. A 400-kilometer fault broke there. The resulting earthquake magnitude was 7-8. There are four places like Marmara. So, they neither know how to count nor do they understand geology," he said.
"WHAT NATURE SAYS IS IMPORTANT" Recalling the 7.2 magnitude Düzce earthquake that occurred on November 12, 1999, and the 6.2 magnitude earthquakes centered in Silivri on April 23, 2025, Üşümezsoy stated that he had previously warned about these regions. Üşümezsoy said, "While everyone was saying there would be great destruction in the Islands and an 8 magnitude earthquake in Marmara, I said, 'There is no such thing, but the fault is in Düzce,' and a 7.2 magnitude earthquake occurred in Düzce. That's why the first hammer was struck in everyone's mind. Later, on April 23, while everyone was expecting a big earthquake, a person said, 'While one end of the fault is in Silivri, it won't reach Büyükçekmece, which is right next to Kumburgaz.' He measured it centimeter by centimeter and said, 'At most between 6-6.5.' April 23 came, and it proved exactly that. In this case, it means that a lot of words have been said, papers have been written, and professorial publications have all gone to waste. What the publication said and what came out are different. What nature says is important. I have written five books. I said this in all of these books. Nature listened to me exactly; I was talking to nature and faults, or nature was listening to me," he said.
"THEY ARE CREATING EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS ON FAULTS DRAWN WITH A RULER" Shener Üşümezsoy also stated that he had warned about the activity in the Sındırgı district of Balıkesir, saying, "While they were talking about İzmir day and night, none of them knew about Sındırgı. But a man came out on April 23 and said, 'There is a risk in Sındırgı.' A month later, it happened in Sındırgı. In this case, when predicting something, it is necessary to see those places. They were creating earthquake scenarios on faults drawn straight with a ruler from the maps made by MTA or TPA without seeing or knowing the faults. But there, the Sındırgı and Simav faults continue. However, we had seen separate faults in Sındırgı. The fault in Simav was like two pieces. One broke in Demirci, the other did not break. The other one had broken in Gediz. So when I said 'there is a risk in Sındırgı' based on these, it happened," he said.
"THERE WILL NOT BE AN EARTHQUAKE LIKE AUGUST 17 IN İZNİK" During the screening of the documentary 'İznik, Sunken Mystery,' which focuses on the discovery of the submerged Basilica of St. Neophytos in Lake İznik and the archaeological research conducted in the area, French Geologist Prof. Dr. Julia de Sigoyer stated that they found that the basilica was damaged in the major earthquake of 1065 and mentioned the possibility of a major earthquake occurring in İznik soon. In response to the statement, "We discovered an active fault line in Lake İznik," Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy said, "They say; the fault that broke on August 17 along the Sapanca-Gölcük-Yalova-Çınarcık line is correct. They accept that it does not go towards the Island, nor does it go to Istanbul. In fact, while it was formed by sinking down like this, they are saying it is a lateral fault, the fault line that goes from Geyve Gorge, Mekece, İznik, and from there to Gemlik goes all the way to Bandırma. They had started with the theme 'there will be an earthquake here like on August 17.' They say, 'This fault line here is a laterally moving fault line.' But in their own seismic data, we see that there is a collapse here. The mountains have risen here, and there is a section that has collapsed in front. But there is definitely no laterally moving fault here. What does this mean? There will not be an earthquake here like August 17. There will not be one in Gemlik either. But what is happening here? It collapsed downwards 1000 years ago. Right south of this, Uludağ rose in 1855, which also collapsed the Uludağ Plain. There is no laterally moving fault in front of Uludağ, in Lake İznik, or in the Gemlik Gulf. In their seismic data, there is no lateral movement; there is vertical movement. This lake has also emerged by sinking. When a building of about 50 meters disappears, it collapses laterally but remains. But this has sunk. There are two types of movement; one sinks. But the North Anatolian fault moves laterally. In the earthquake in Sapanca, the fault cuts the road, but the road remains at the same level on both sides. But here, there is a downward collapse. It means that if there has not been an earthquake here for a thousand years, the ground has slowly collapsed under tension. They count a lot of earthquakes before that, which is fantastic. But they searched for faults in the rock, on the shore, and found none," he said.
"MICRO EARTHQUAKES IN GEMLİK DO NOT CAUSE A BIG EARTHQUAKE" Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy stated that contrary to the statements made in Gemlik, the likelihood of a major earthquake occurring is low, saying, "They have made the people of Gemlik anxious, saying that the fault is coming. What is happening in Gemlik and Orhangazi is micro earthquakes caused by the breaking of many small faults by hot waters. These do not create a big earthquake. For a major earthquake to occur, a large fault needs to break. If there are many small faults here, they create an earthquake storm. The story in Gemlik and Orhangazi is such a story. There is no laterally moving fault as they mentioned in İznik. Even if there were a laterally moving fault, when the fault on the Yalova-Çınarcık coast breaks, the stress ends here. The story in Gemlik and the continuation of İznik is based on ignorance and speculation," he said.