09.11.2026 18:21
The claim that an $8 billion deal could be made between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused volatility in global markets. While the price of Brent crude fell by about 4.6%, Bitcoin did not react positively to the same extent. Bitcoin, which approached the $81,000 level on November 5, retreated to around $74,000. Investors' eyes are now turned to inflation data in the US and the Fed's interest rate decision.
Despite the sharp drop in oil prices, the expected rise did not occur in Bitcoin, the largest asset in the cryptocurrency market. While claims of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz affected the energy market, Bitcoin's remaining at the $74,000 level caused investors to focus on interest rate expectations.
BITCOIN RETREATED FROM $81,000 TO THE $74,000 LEVEL
The price movements in the cryptocurrency market in recent days have reopened the debate over Bitcoin's reaction to global developments. Bitcoin, which rose to around $81,000 on November 5, lost value in the following days and retreated to the $74,000 band. According to the market data reported, Bitcoin was trading at $74,437, remaining about 8 percent below its level on November 5. It was stated that in some intraday trades, the price fell to around $73,600. It drew attention that the sharp decline in oil prices was not reflected in Bitcoin in the same direction. Despite expectations that lower energy costs could ease pressure on inflation, no strong recovery was seen in the cryptocurrency market.
THE $8 BILLION CLAIM IN HORMUZ SHOOK OIL
At the center of developments that could affect Bitcoin's course are claims regarding diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. According to a report by the Israel Hayom newspaper based on two diplomatic sources, Iran considered a compromise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the release of approximately $8 billion of its funds held in Qatar. According to the claim, the US would lift its naval blockade, and Iran would stop attacks on ships in the Gulf. It was also alleged that Tehran gave up its demand to charge fees from ships passing through the strait. After these developments, the price of a barrel of Brent crude fell from Friday's closing level of $98.32 to $93.81. The approximately 4.6 percent decline in oil was associated with expectations that concerns about energy supply could ease. However, no finalized agreement between the US and Iran has yet been announced.
OIL FELL, BUT WHY DIDN'T BITCOIN RISE?
The relationship between oil prices and Bitcoin is shaped more through inflation and interest rate expectations than through a direct price connection. A decline in energy costs could reduce pressure on consumer prices in the US. A possible decline in inflation could change expectations regarding the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). For risky assets such as Bitcoin, the Fed's interest rate decisions and liquidity conditions in the markets are of great importance. Therefore, falling oil prices alone do not mean that Bitcoin will rise. Indeed, in the period when oil prices fell by about 12 percent on November 4, Bitcoin had risen above $80,000 again. However, the fact that the same relationship did not continue in the following days showed that different dynamics were also effective in the cryptocurrency market.
FOR BITCOIN, EYES ARE ON FED AND INFLATION DATA
The October inflation data to be announced in the US will be one of the important indicators for Bitcoin's short-term price movements. According to the reported data, as of November 6, the CME FedWatch indicator showed the probability of the Fed making a quarter-point interest rate hike in December at 76.8 percent. This expectation needs to be reassessed with current data. On the other hand, the high course of gasoline prices in the US brings energy costs to the fore in inflation debates. According to AAA data, on November 5, the national average price of gasoline was at $4.10 per gallon. For Bitcoin's direction, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, inflation data, and the Fed's interest rate policy are being followed together. How a possible diplomatic compromise would be reflected in the markets remains uncertain.