17.08.2026 10:21
After the Central Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast, attention turned to the January raise. Following the Central Bank's 28% forecast, the possible raise rates for civil servants, SSK-Bağ-Kur retirees, and public workers were calculated one by one according to the Market Participants Survey and economists' expectations.
The Central Bank announced its 2026 inflation forecast, raising it by 2 points to 28 percent. Now, it is wondered how much civil servant salaries and pensions will increase in January according to the new inflation forecast. On the other hand, it is being researched whether it would be more advantageous to submit a retirement petition before the end of 2026 or after entering 2027. Important evaluations have come from an expert.
WHAT KIND OF CHANGE WILL THERE BE IN SALARIES?
In its first inflation report of the year, the Central Bank had announced the interim inflation target for 2026 as 16 percent. Later, in the second inflation report of the year, it raised the interim target for 2026 to 24 percent. It had announced the inflation forecast as 26 percent for the end of 2026. Finally, in the third inflation report of the year, the Central Bank updated its end-2026 inflation forecast upwards to 28 percent. After the Central Bank's new inflation forecast, millions are wondering how pension and civil servant salary increases might change in January. Ahmet Kıvanç, a Habertürk columnist, calculating the possibilities according to the new inflation forecasts in his article on Habertürk, said, "The constant increase of inflation targets more than expected and the upward revision of targets victimize workers, civil servants, and retirees."
HOW MUCH WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE BE?
Kıvanç, emphasizing that while determining the minimum wage to be applied in 2026, it was ensured that it remained between the 2025 inflation and the 2026 inflation forecast, stated that considering the 2025 inflation was 30.89 percent and the 2026 inflation would be around 16 percent, the minimum wage was increased by 27 percent from 26,005.50 TL to 33,030 TL. Kıvanç, noting that the same method was followed in the previous year for the minimum wage, stated that while the 2024 inflation was 44.38 percent and the 2025 inflation forecast was 21 percent at that time, the minimum wage was increased by 30 percent from 20,002.50 TL to 26,005.50 TL. Kıvanç also pointed out that in the private sector, in workplaces without collective bargaining agreements, wages are generally determined according to the rate of increase applied to the minimum wage.
HOW MUCH WILL THE JANUARY SALARY INCREASE BE?
Finally, the Central Bank's 2026 inflation forecast has risen to 28 percent. In the Central Bank's latest Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation forecast was announced as 29.43 percent, while economists participating in AA Finance's latest Inflation Expectation Survey predicted 2026 inflation as 29.55 percent.
After the Central Bank updated its inflation forecast, it is wondered how much increase will be applied to pensions and civil servant salaries in January. Kıvanç calculated the possible increase rates according to all three inflation forecasts as follows:
- According to the Central Bank's 28 percent inflation forecast: SSK and BAĞ-KUR pensions by 8.70 percent, civil servant salaries and retired civil servant pensions by 6.66 percent, public workers' wages by 2.70 percent.
- According to the Central Bank Market Participants Survey: SSK and BAĞ-KUR pensions by 9.91 percent, civil servant salaries and retired civil servant pensions by 7.86 percent, public workers' wages by 3.91 percent.
- According to the Anadolu Agency Economists Survey: SSK and BAĞ-KUR pensions by 10.01 percent, civil servant salaries and retired civil servant pensions by 7.95 percent, public workers' wages by 4.01 percent.
Kıvanç, emphasizing that the collective bargaining agreements covering public workers for 2027-2028 will be signed next year, stated that public workers will only receive the inflation difference realized in the July-December period this year in January until the collective bargaining agreement is signed. He noted that the inflation difference will be calculated based on the 6 percent collective bargaining agreement raise in July, and that the main January raise for public workers will be determined by the contract.
IS 2026 OR 2027 ADVANTAGEOUS FOR RETIREMENT?
On the other hand, many people planning for retirement wonder whether 2026 or 2027 would be more advantageous to submit a retirement petition. Kıvanç emphasized that the pension amounts for SSK, Bağ-Kur, and public officials subject to Law No. 5510 are determined according to the date they submit their petition. Pointing out that, as was the case when transitioning from 2024 to 2025, there is a significant difference in some years between those who submit their petition in December and those who submit it in January, Kıvanç calculated the difference between those submitting their retirement petition in December and those submitting it in January based on current data after the CBRT's upward revision of its inflation forecast.
Kıvanç used the following statements in his evaluation: "Those who submit their retirement petition by 31 December 2026 will benefit from the 12.19 percent and 17.76 percent increases applied to the pensions of SSK and BAĞ-KUR beneficiaries in January and July of this year. The total of these increases in January and July reaches 32.1 percent."
"Those who submit their petition on 1 January 2027 or later will not be able to benefit from the total 32.1 percent increase applied to pensions in 2026. When calculating their pensions, the update coefficient, consisting of the entire increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in 2026 and 30 percent of the gross domestic product growth, will be used."
"If the update coefficient comes out to 1.32, there will be no difference between the pensions of those who submit their petition in 2026 and those who submit it in 2027. For this, the sum of the entire annual inflation and 30 percent of the 2026 GDP growth needs to be 32 percent. The lower this sum is than 32 percent, the more advantageous it will be for those who submit their petition in 2026."