29.10.2026 17:47
Having fallen below $4,000 last week and hitting its lowest level since mid-July, gold per ounce rose back above this threshold. According to Reuters, spot gold is trading at $4,004.55, down 0.3% under the influence of a strengthening dollar. Gram gold was at 6,425 lira in the morning hours. Markets focused on the Fed interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow.
Gold prices are trying to hold at the $4,000 level after the worst week in the last 4 months. While the decline in oil prices supports gold, the strengthening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate hike are putting pressure on prices.
LAST WEEK IT FELL BELOW $4,000
Spot gold fell to as low as $3,975 on Friday, October 23, dropping below $4,000 for the first time since July 20. Gold ended last week with a loss of about 4%, posting its worst weekly performance in the last 4 months. Rising energy prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of a rate hike in the US, putting pressure on the precious metal.
THE DECLINE IN OIL PROVIDED SUPPORT
Spot gold recovered on the first trading day of the week with buying from low levels and rose back above $4,000. According to market experts, the decline in oil prices and diplomatic initiatives between the US and Iran are supporting gold. Brent crude fell to $114.68 this morning, extending a decline that has lasted for 2 sessions. Experts note that high energy costs have not completely eliminated the pressure on gold.
A STRENGTHENING DOLLAR IS PUTTING PRESSURE
According to Reuters, spot gold fell 0.3% today to $4,004.55 per ounce. US gold futures for December also traded down 0.5% at $4,017. The dollar, hovering near its highest level in the last 2 weeks, is making gold more expensive for investors using other currencies.
FED EXPECTED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow after its 2-day meeting that began today. Fed officials signaled that there will be no rate hike this week. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in about an 11% probability of a rate hike this week and about an 80% probability of a hike in December. Gold, which yields no interest, generally remains under pressure in a high-interest-rate environment.
“IF $3,900 IS BROKEN, THE DECLINE MAY DEEPEN”
Tastylive analyst Ilya Spivak said in an assessment to Reuters, “If we fall below $3,900, another significant decline could occur.” Spivak noted that in this case, the $3,800 level could be tested.
SILVER AND PLATINUM ALSO FALL
Other precious metals are also ending the day lower. Silver fell 2.1% to $52.77, platinum fell 2.1% to $1,495.62, and palladium fell 2.5% to $1,023.47.
A HEAVY DATA WEEK
Markets will follow the Fed decision as well as the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and third-quarter growth data to be released on Thursday. It is predicted that the US midterm elections to be held on November 3 next week may also cause volatility in the dollar and bond markets.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INVESTORS IN TURKEY?
In Turkey, the gram gold price is determined by the dollar price of ounce gold and the dollar/TL exchange rate. According to the calculation made if the exchange rate remains stable at 49.79 lira, a decline in ounce gold to $3,900 means gram gold would fall to approximately 6,243 lira. If ounce gold falls to $3,800, gram gold could decline to approximately 6,083 lira. This calculation does not include the bid-ask spread at jewelers and banks or labor fees.
EXCHANGE RATE EFFECT MAY LIMIT THE DECLINE
An increase in the dollar/TL exchange rate can limit the reflection of a possible decline in ounce gold onto gram gold. Due to the spread between the buying and selling prices in physical gold, it becomes difficult for short-term price movements to turn into profit for small investors. It is noted that the Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow may also cause sharp fluctuations in gold prices in both directions.