12.03.2026 09:40
Global markets are trending negatively as oil prices rise again and uncertainties regarding inflation in the U.S. persist, while attention is focused on the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which will be announced today at 14:00. The majority of economists believe that the policy interest rate will be kept unchanged.
While the markets continue to fluctuate due to the war, all eyes are on the interest rate decision that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will announce today at 14:00. The uncertainty created by the ongoing war in the Middle East is particularly affecting expectations regarding monetary policy.
ECONOMISTS' PREDICTION IS THE SAME
Economists expect a pause in the interest rate cut process that began about nine months ago during this meeting. According to a survey conducted by AA Finance with the participation of 38 economists, 37 of them believe that the policy interest rate will be kept unchanged. One economist participating in the survey predicted a 50 basis point cut.
The Central Bank announced its first interest rate decision of the year in January, reducing the policy interest rate by 100 basis points from 38% to 37%. In the markets, the expectation for that meeting was to lower the interest rate to 36.5% with a 150 basis point cut.
WAR MEASURES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK
On the other hand, the Central Bank had also announced some measures against the volatility in financial markets due to the war in Iran. In this context, it was decided to temporarily suspend one-week repo auctions, and it was also announced that Turkish lira forward foreign exchange selling transactions would begin.
The decision to be announced today is expected to provide an important signal regarding the direction of monetary policy due to global developments and fluctuations in the domestic market.