16.01.2026 10:11
The Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, stated in his presentation to investors in London that the inflation at the end of 2026 is projected to be at 19 percent, and that the disinflation process is based on permanent foundations.
The meetings with investors held by Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek in London have been completed. In a statement, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced that during the Turkey Investment Conference, 20 separate meetings were held with over 500 investors from leading institutional investment organizations, with a fund size exceeding 58 billion dollars.
It was also stated that discussions were held with senior executives of international credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch Ratings in London.
2026 YEAR-END INFLATION FORECAST IS 19 PERCENT
In his presentation in London, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek explained the outlook for the Turkish economy to investors. The main pillars of the disinflation process, fiscal discipline policies, current account balance outlook, and medium-term structural transformation were highlighted in the presentation.
It was stated in the presentation that the decrease in inflation is not temporary. Şimşek noted that the tight monetary policy stance, supportive fiscal and income policies, supply-side measures in housing, food, and energy, positive base effects, improvement in inflation expectations, and the negative output gap support disinflation.
Sharing that the inflation rate has decreased since 2023, Şimşek announced that they estimate the year-end inflation for 2026 to be between 13 and 19 percent. The revaluation rate announced as 25.49 percent for 2025 was also stated to be 19 percent for the 2026 forecast, similar to the inflation forecast.
ATTENTION WAS DRAWN TO HOUSING, FOOD, AND PRIVATE SCHOOL PRICES
The presentation noted that completed and ongoing housing projects in the earthquake zone, social housing projects, and urban transformation investments have increased housing supply, thereby limiting rent inflation. It was emphasized that rents have largely caught up with housing prices. In private school fees, it was conveyed that the aim is to control education inflation through regulated pricing and ceiling applications. It was stated that the risk of frost and drought in agriculture is low for 2026, which presents a positive outlook for food prices.
Additionally, it was mentioned that developments in agricultural irrigation, basin-based production, improvements in supply chain and logistics, and increasing the scale of agricultural enterprises will also contribute to the slowdown of food inflation. The presentation shared that the increase in domestic oil and natural gas production, green transformation investments, strong trends in service exports, and industrial policies have permanently improved the current account balance.
It was emphasized that the gross external financing need has decreased relative to national income, external demand continues to be the main determinant in exports, and there has been no decline in competitiveness. It was reiterated that the gross external financing need has decreased relative to national income, external demand continues to be the main determinant in exports, and there has been no widespread deterioration in competitiveness.
GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT, AND FINANCIAL STABILITY
The presentation indicated that growth is on a moderate path, with an expected growth rate of 3.8 percent in 2026. It was stated that unemployment remains low at 8.6 percent. Şimşek pointed out that productivity growth has regained momentum. On the financial stability side, improvements in reserve adequacy, exit from currency-protected deposits, strong capital structure in the banking sector, and recovery in companies' foreign exchange positions were highlighted.
In the presentation, Turkey's geopolitical position, defense industry capacity, regional integration projects, and its role in logistics corridors were also important topics for investors. Turkey's position within NATO and its reliability were also mentioned.