16.01.2026 11:01
In the central bank survey, market participants' year-end inflation expectation was 23.23%, while the year-end dollar/TL expectation was realized at the level of 51.17 TL.
The Central Bank published the results of the January 2026 Market Participants Survey, conducted with 72 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors and professionals. While inflation expectations decreased in the survey, the year-end dollar/TL forecast exceeded 51 lira.
2026 YEAR-END INFLATION EXPECTATION IS 23.23 PERCENT
According to the survey, the year-end inflation expectation for 2026 was recorded at 23.23 percent. The inflation expectation for 12 months later decreased from 23.35 percent to 22.20 percent, while the inflation expectation for 24 months later fell from 17.45 percent to 16.94 percent.
YEAR-END DOLLAR/TL FORECAST IS 51.17
The current year-end dollar/TL forecast in the survey was announced as 51.17. The dollar/TL expectation for 12 months later also increased from 51.08 TL to 51.89 TL.
NIGHTLY INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION DECREASED
The participants' expectation for the current month's end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market decreased from 38.13 percent in the previous survey period to 36.43 percent in this survey period.
GROWTH EXPECTATIONS: 3.9 PERCENT IN 2026
The survey included a growth forecast of 3.9 percent for 2026, while the growth forecast for 2027 was 4.3 percent.