15.10.2026 09:00
Murat Şahin, the former İzmir Regional Director of Meteorology, who predicted with pinpoint accuracy days in advance the severe rainfall and flood disaster that struck Istanbul, made another highly critical warning using maps. Şahin, stating that the soil is already saturated with water, said, "Another deep system is coming tomorrow as well. If another 100 kilograms is added on top of over 100 kilograms, a disaster may occur, and there may be loss of life."
While megacity Istanbul and the entire Marmara Region grapple with the devastating effects of the heavy downpours, floods, and flash floods that struck on Wednesday, a frightening warning came from the meteorological world that the scale of the disaster could grow.
Former Meteorology Izmir Regional Director and meteorology expert Murat Şahin, who had reported the flood and inundation events experienced on Wednesday days in advance, shared current meteorological maps and announced that the danger had not passed; on the contrary, it could escalate further with a second wave.
HE HAD ISSUED A WARNING ON OCTOBER 10
Meteorologist Murat Şahin, in his warning on October 10 before the disaster occurred, drew attention to the danger and used the following statements:
"Marmara, the Aegean, and the Western Mediterranean should prepare next week for effective and continuous rainfall at a level that will especially create a risk of flooding and inundation; riverbeds and channels should be cleaned, drainage grates should be opened. Debris and similar materials that would obstruct the water should be removed..."
"WE ARE UNDER THE EFFECT OF AN ICELAND-ORIGIN 'COLD DROP'"
Explaining the background of the disaster that struck the megacity on Wednesday, October 14, Şahin emphasized that Turkey, especially centered on Istanbul, was under the influence of a deep low-pressure system originating from Iceland and a structure known in meteorology as a "Cold Drop" (Cut-off Low).
Recalling that, due to the system, more than 100 kilograms of rainfall per square meter fell in the city, Şahin stated that the rainy weather would continue its presence in the region for the next 2-3 days.
"IF ANOTHER 100 KILOGRAMS FALLS ON TOP OF THE 100 KILOGRAMS ALREADY FALLEN, A DISASTER WILL OCCUR"
Calling on authorities and citizens to take urgent measures through the 500 hPa height, wind, and temperature maps he shared, Şahin made the following critical warning for Thursday and Friday:
"Attention was drawn for Wednesday; rainfall at a level that would create a disaster fell in Istanbul and will continue. I warn again: A deep system is also coming tomorrow. If this system comes in October, it will create a flood and inundation danger at disaster level. If another 100 kilograms or more of rainfall comes on top of the 100 kilograms of rainfall that has already fallen, a disaster may occur tomorrow. Floods, inundation, and loss of life may occur. Be careful!"
CALL FOR "ALERT" FOR THE ENTIRE MARMARA REGION
Noting that the soil was completely saturated with water, the infrastructure had reached its limit, and the new rainfall load to come could bring disaster, the veteran meteorologist issued a call for alert covering the entire Marmara:
"Dangerous meteorological conditions continue for Marmara. There is a risk of excessive rainfall, flood and inundation danger in the provinces. New rainfall will continue for another 2-3 days, the risk has increased further. Every province should be on alert and take urgent measures."