24.01.2025 11:42
A 5.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred two days ago off the coast of Ayvacık district in Çanakkale caused panic. The tremor, felt primarily in Çanakkale as well as in Balıkesir, Izmir, Bursa, and Tekirdağ, has once again brought the expectation of a major earthquake in Istanbul to the forefront. Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş made a groundbreaking statement regarding the anticipated Marmara earthquake.
The earthquakes that have occurred in many regions from the east to the west of Turkey have once again brought the expectation of a major earthquake in Istanbul to the agenda. After the earthquake in Kahramanmaraş last year, which claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people, the question of when the anticipated major earthquake in Istanbul will occur has become a matter of curiosity. In this regard, retired Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş from the Department of Geological Engineering at Karadeniz Technical University made a groundbreaking statement regarding the expected Marmara earthquake.
"THE MARMARA REGION HAS ENTERED A 75-YEAR PERIOD OF QUIESCENCE"
Prof. Dr. Bektaş explained the reason for the delay of the major earthquake in Istanbul by relating it to a similar situation in San Francisco. Addressing the failure of predictions that a 7-magnitude earthquake would occur in Istanbul within 30 years after the 1999 İzmit earthquake, Bektaş stated that the Marmara Region has entered a 75-year period of quiescence. He expressed that this process is similar to the situation observed after the major earthquake in San Francisco in 1906.
WHY IS THE GREAT ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE DELAYED?
Bektaş answered the question of "why a major earthquake greater than 7 has not occurred in Istanbul within 25 years after the 1999 İzmit earthquake" as follows:
"Marmara has entered a 75-year period of quiescence, just as it did after the 7.8 magnitude San Francisco earthquake in 1906 during its 500-year historical period. The lack of a major earthquake greater than 5.9 in Marmara within 25 years, despite the stress transfer from the 1999 İzmit - Düzce earthquakes and the 25-year tectonic loading of the North Anatolian Fault (KAF), is evidence that the faults have not yet come out of the relaxation period."