09.10.2026 17:50
Following TÜİK's inflation data, the first scenarios concerning the January 2027 civil servant and retiree pay increase rates have become clear. If year-end inflation is 28 percent, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are expected to receive an 8.70 percent increase, while civil servants and retired civil servants are expected to receive a 6.67 percent increase due to the collective bargaining calculation.
Millions of civil servants, retired civil servants, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees are focused on the salary increases to be implemented in January 2027. As the first 9-month picture of the year became clear with the announcement of September inflation figures, possible raise rates and salary tables were calculated before the data for the last 3 months of the year.
8.70 PERCENT RAISE EXPECTATION FOR SSK AND BAĞ-KUR RETIREES
Social security expert Özgür Erdursun predicted that year-end inflation for 2026 could be around 28 percent. Recalling that inflation was recorded at 17.76 percent in the first 6-month period of the year, Erdursun stated that if the year-end expectation materializes, the second 6-month inflation of 2026 will be 8.70 percent.
In this scenario, an inflation differential of 8.70 percent will be directly reflected in SSK and Bağ-Kur retirement pensions as of January 2027.
EXAMPLE RETIREMENT SALARIES ACCORDING TO THE RAISE RATE
If the 8.70 percent increase rate is finalized, retirement salaries will be updated as follows:
- The pension of a retiree receiving 25,000 TL will rise to 27,175 TL,
- The pension of a retiree receiving 30,000 TL will rise to 32,610 TL,
- The pension of a retiree receiving 40,000 TL will rise to 43,480 TL.
If the lowest retirement pension, currently 23,552 TL, is also increased by the same rate, the amount is expected to reach approximately 25,601 TL. However, in order for this increase in the lowest retirement pension to be actually implemented, legal regulations must be made by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey.
WHY WILL THE RAISE FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND RETIRED CIVIL SERVANTS REMAIN LOWER?
Collective bargaining terms play a determining role in the raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants. A collective bargaining raise of 7 percent is envisaged for the second half of 2026, and 5 percent for the first half of 2027. If second 6-month inflation comes in at 8.70 percent, civil servants will first be given the 1.59 percent portion exceeding the 7 percent collective bargaining increase as an inflation differential. Then the 5 percent collective bargaining raise set for the first 6 months of 2027 will be added to this rate. According to the compound calculation made, the total raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants in January 2027 will remain at 6.67 percent.
3 MONTHS OF DATA AWAITED FOR THE FINAL RAISE RATE
While SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees receive a raise directly equal to the 6-month inflation rate, it is stated that because civil servants and retired civil servants are subject to the collective bargaining mechanism, their raise rate will remain below that of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. The final raise rates will become clear after the October, November and December inflation data are announced.