17.10.2026 13:10
Prof. Dr. Şermin Tağıl from İzmir Bakırçay University said that the 2026-2027 winter in Turkey will start warmer and wetter than normal, with a risk of downpours and floods in the first half. Noting that at the end of January and in February, with the weakening of the Polar Vortex, sudden cold spells, heavy snow, and blizzards may occur, Tağıl emphasized that the forecasts are not a definitive calendar but a probability map.
Prof. Dr. Şermin Tağıl, Faculty Member of the Department of Geography at İzmir Bakırçay University, stated that above-normal temperatures and increased precipitation are expected to stand out across Turkey during the winter season, and warned against the risk of downpours and floods in the first half of winter and sudden cold snaps, heavy snow and blizzards in the second half.
Tağıl told the AA correspondent that climate change no longer means only rising temperatures, but is also changing the usual order of the seasons.
Noting that on one hand there are long-lasting hot and dry periods, and on the other hand severe precipitation that becomes effective in a short time, Tağıl explained that for this reason, when evaluating the 2026-2027 winter, it is necessary to look not only at air temperatures but also at large-scale changes occurring in the atmosphere and oceans.
A MILD AND PRECIPITATION-RICH WINTER IS EXPECTED
Prof. Dr. Şermin Tağıl emphasized that in order to understand the course of this year's winter, the interaction among El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Polar Vortex in particular should be evaluated, and noted the following:
"The interaction of these three major systems affects weather conditions and extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Basin and our country. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models reveal a variable winter picture for Turkey. In the Mediterranean belt, which includes Turkey, rainy and mild conditions stand out. The models point to a period of increased precipitation rather than a dry winter. In addition, it is noteworthy that global sea surface temperatures have reached the highest values recorded since the 1980s. Warmer-than-normal seas can increase the amount of moisture and energy transferred to the atmosphere, supporting severe precipitation and winter storms under suitable atmospheric conditions. Model results show that in the first half of winter, temperatures in Turkey will be above seasonal norms. However, this should not mean that a dry winter will be experienced. Moisture carried by southerly winds will increase precipitation, especially in coastal areas and western regions. High temperatures will lead to less snow in low areas and more snow accumulation in high mountainous areas."
Stating that they expect the really remarkable change from the middle of winter onward, Tağıl said that in the model scenarios for the end of January and February, a weakening of the Polar Vortex is predicted.
RISK OF SUDDEN COLD AND SNOW AT THE END OF JANUARY AND IN FEBRUARY
Tağıl noted that the weakening of the Polar Vortex will facilitate the movement of freezing cold air around the pole toward the mid-latitudes, and continued as follows:
"The occurrence of these atmospheric conditions may increase the likelihood of severe winter conditions emerging. The meeting of moist air coming from the Mediterranean with cold air masses advancing from the north under suitable conditions may lead to strong precipitation and, in some regions, heavy snowfall and blizzards. In terms of snow in the 2026-2027 winter, mild conditions may make it difficult for snow to settle on the ground. An increase in snowfall in the second half of winter may strengthen the snow cover, especially in the high parts of Eastern Anatolia and Central Anatolia. However, the models indicate that snow drought may continue in other parts of our country."
FLOOD AND SNOWSTORM WARNING
Drawing attention to the fact that most of the winter passing mildly and with abundant precipitation is a pleasing development for Turkey, which has been under drought pressure for many years, Tağıl pointed out, however, that the predominance of mild and rainy conditions throughout the winter does not mean that the risks have disappeared.
Tağıl made the following assessment: "In the first half, severe downpours and precipitation that intensifies in a short time may cause floods and inundations in some of our cities. In the second half, sudden temperature drops and heavy snowfall may be experienced along with cold air masses coming from the north. Of course, seasonal forecasts are not a definite calendar but a probability map showing the possible course of the atmosphere. In the first half of winter, downpours and floods, and in the second half, sudden cold spells and snowstorms may seriously disrupt city life. For this reason, it is of great importance to be prepared for different weather conditions."