06.08.2026 13:00
Despite spot ETF inflows and record highs in US stock markets, Bitcoin remained flat around $64,000. Analysts interpret this stagnation as a picture of exhausted selling pressure, with the market approaching a potential bottom, rather than a new collapse.
Bitcoin remained around $64,000 despite spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $211.5 million and US stock markets hitting record highs. On the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows of $53.8 million. The S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 7,737 points. The Nasdaq rose 2.6 percent, driven by earnings reports from artificial intelligence companies. Brent oil fell below $80 following reduced tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to analysts, the failure of the price to rise despite ETF inflows suggests the market is experiencing compression rather than a new collapse.
Jasper De Maere from over-the-counter trading firm Wintermute argued that recent buyers in the spot market have not yet moved with strong expectations of a rally. According to De Maere, Bitcoin needs to convincingly surpass $65,000 in the near term for the recovery scenario to gain strength.
Analysts note that bottom signals are strengthening more from the exhaustion of selling pressure than from a sudden collapse. The seller exhaustion indicator from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has fallen to its lowest level of this cycle, reaching the zone where previous bottoms formed. The firm stated that the market has not yet reached the bottom but is approaching the bottom zone.
Bitfinex analysts also drew a similar picture. According to them, approximately 155,000 BTC accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000. This amount represents one of the largest cost clusters for Bitcoin on-chain. Although the price closed below $63,000 for two consecutive days and generated a bearish signal, buyers continued to absorb selling. As of the August 2 close, 54.6 percent of the circulating supply was in profit. According to analysts, the average investor's cost basis was near the current price. This scenario aligns with a structure historically seen before cycle bottoms.
OPTIONS DON'T EXPECT BIG MOVES
The options market no longer expects a strong price movement in either direction. Glassnode identified that upside implied volatility has dropped to approximately 23 percent, the lowest in its dataset. Wintermute noted that Wednesday-dated options priced only a 1.01 percent daily move in Bitcoin. This options pricing showed the narrowest expected range of the week, indicating a movement range of roughly $63,454 to $64,749 for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, shifts in market sentiment continue. According to Glassnode, the one-week options market skew changed by more than eight points in a single session on a day when the spot price barely moved. The firm commented, "A market that prices in nothing but reacts to every development is not stable."
JOBS REPORT COULD DETERMINE BITCOIN'S DIRECTION
The demand side remains the weak link. US spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, which were the main channels of institutional demand over the past two years, turned into net sellers last quarter. According to Glassnode, approximately 65,800 BTC flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in June alone, marking the worst month on record.
Bitfinex analysts stated that Bitcoin is now more dependent on macro conditions rather than crypto-specific demand. According to analysts, rising real yields and whether the $62,000-$65,000 range can be maintained will determine the price direction. Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, noted that reduced geopolitical risk, declining rate hike expectations, and strong earnings are simultaneously supporting risk appetite. According to Rodda, prediction markets show the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen from 100 percent last week to around 60 percent following weak job openings data. Economists expect 85,000 job growth in July and an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent. The US July jobs report will be released on Friday, August 7, at 3:30 PM Turkey time.
Glassnode noted that in past periods when one-month realized volatility compressed to similar levels, the resolution was mostly to the upside. The firm described this data as the most positive element in its analysis but also highlighted its biggest concern at the same point. In the past, such compressions were mostly resolved by pent-up demand entering the market. This time, institutional demand channels are not providing the same support, and seller exhaustion does not yet appear complete.