Millions are waiting for the pension increase on Monday.

03.05.2025 17:05

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announces inflation data on the 3rd of each month. However, due to May 3 falling on a weekend, the data for April will be shared with the public on Monday, May 5, 2025, at 10:00 AM. With this data, the inflation difference for the past four months will also become clear, marking another critical milestone in the calculations for pension increases.

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According to the Market Participants Survey regularly published by the Central Bank every month, inflation is expected to be at 3.07% in April. If this prediction materializes, the total inflation difference over four months will rise even further. The same survey forecasts a monthly inflation rate of 2.20% for May and 1.70% for June. These figures signal that the six-month inflation difference, to be announced in July, could exceed 17%.

WHAT WILL BE THE LOWEST RETIREMENT PENSION?

In January 2025, a 15.75% increase was made for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, raising the lowest retirement pension to 14,469 TL. With the July increase, this figure is expected to rise again. According to current estimates, the lowest retirement pension is expected to exceed the 16,500 TL band. As the first quarter of 2025 comes to a close, all eyes are on the July increase for retirees and civil servant salaries. Considering the confirmed inflation rate of 10.06% for January, February, and March, it is expected that the increase rate will rise even further.

ESTIMATES INDICATE 17.91%

The inflation forecasts for April, May, and June in the Central Bank's Market Participants Survey provide strong clues about the increase rate for retirees. It is predicted that the total six-month inflation will reach 17.91% along with the estimates in the survey. This means that the increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in July could be approximately 17.91%.

DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND RETIRED CIVIL SERVANTS

The calculation of the increase for civil servants and retired civil servants works a bit differently. According to the regulations, a collective bargaining increase of 6% is expected for civil servant salaries in the first half of 2025, and 5% in the second half. However, if these increase rates fall below the actual inflation, civil servants and retired civil servants will reflect the difference as an inflation difference in their salaries. This means that both the contract increase and the inflation difference may be applied in July.