07.09.2026 10:50
Following the announcement of the new Medium-Term Program, calculations have begun for a potential increase in the minimum wage effective in 2027. If a 20 percent raise is applied to the current net minimum wage of 28,075.50 TL, the wage would rise to approximately 33,691 TL; with a 25 percent raise, it would increase to 35,094 TL; and with a 30 percent raise, it would reach 36,498 TL. The exact figure will be determined as a result of the negotiations of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which will convene in December.
With the announcement of the new Medium-Term Program (MTP) data, initial calculations regarding the minimum wage increase that will affect millions of employees in 2027 have begun to take shape. Considering the new MTP data, which sets 2026 inflation at 28.4 percent and the 2027 year-end inflation target at 21 percent, along with the welfare share practices of previous years, the new minimum wage is projected to be determined with an increase of 20 to 30 percent.
POSSIBLE WAGE INCREASE SCENARIOS FOR THE MINIMUM WAGE
Unlike civil servant and retiree salaries, which are directly tied to six-month inflation data, the minimum wage is determined by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, evaluating criteria such as the inflation outlook, employer costs, and the living conditions of employees. With the new MTP announcing the 2026 year-end inflation forecast at 28.4 percent and the 2027 year-end target at 21 percent, the wage increase scenarios on the table have become clearer.
For the minimum wage, currently applied as a net amount of 28,075.50 TL, the possible figures within the projected 20-30 percent increase band are listed as follows:
- If a 20 percent increase is applied: Approximately 33,690 TL
- If a 25 percent increase is applied: Approximately 35,094 TL
- If a 30 percent increase is applied: Approximately 36,498 TL
According to evaluations; considering that in previous years, welfare share additions of 9 to 11 points were made on top of the inflation target, the minimum wage increase is expected to be shaped around 30 percent, including a possible welfare share to be added to the 21 percent target for 2027.
CALCULATION METHOD USED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
When determining the minimum wage, the previous year's realized inflation and the year-end inflation targets in the MTP are formulated together. This method produced the following results in the last two years:
For the 2025 minimum wage, a 30 percent increase was applied by blending the 44.38 percent inflation of 2024 and the then-announced 21 percent inflation forecast for 2025, resulting in a net wage of 22,104 TL.
For the 2026 minimum wage, a 27.01 percent increase was applied by evaluating the realized inflation of 30.89 percent in 2025 and the 16 percent forecast for 2026. As a result, the net minimum wage was set at 28,075.50 TL, and the gross minimum wage was set at 33,030 TL.
ATTENTION ON COMMISSION MEETINGS IN DECEMBER
The Minimum Wage Determination Commission, consisting of worker, employer, and government representatives, will start its work in December to determine the figure that will be valid for 2027. In the decision-making process, not only the MTP targets but also the monthly inflation data to be announced between September and December will play a major role. Following the negotiations, the new amount is expected to be announced to the public in the last week of December and officially take effect as of January 1, 2027.