15.10.2026 11:53
After the flood disaster in Istanbul, in which 2 people lost their lives, vehicles were swept away, and many homes and businesses were flooded, a new warning has come. Experts point out that there is a risk of heavy rainfall again on Saturday evening and during the night of October 17 around the Bosphorus and the eastern part of Istanbul, as well as in East Marmara.
The severe downpour that struck Istanbul on October 14 brought life to a standstill in many parts of the city. Across the city, roads turned into lakes, many homes and businesses were flooded, and cars were swept away by floodwaters.
Two people lost their lives in the disaster, while some citizens were stranded in their vehicles and workplaces. The damage caused by the flood, especially in Sarıyer, Ayazağa, Kemerburgaz, and Kağıthane, became apparent at daybreak.
In Ayazağa, images of vehicles dragged by floodwaters piling on top of one another laid bare the scale of the disaster. In Kağıthane, as the stream overflowed, the historic Sadabad Mosque was flooded, and surrounding structures were also damaged.
65 PEOPLE WERE RESCUED IN KEMERBURGAZ
In Kemerburgaz, one of the areas hardest hit by the downpour, homes and businesses were flooded, while many vehicles were stranded on the roads. Firefighters rescued 65 people through operations carried out throughout the night.
Ali Eryolcu, whose minibus was caught in the floodwaters, described his terrifying moments with the words, "The water dragged the car and brought it all the way here. I opened the door and threw myself down, grabbed onto the trees. The water came up to my neck. I stayed in the water for 20 minutes."
PAY ATTENTION TO THE EVENING OF SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17
As Istanbul was still healing the wounds of the flood disaster, some high-resolution meteorological models raised the possibility of new heavy rainfall for the evening and night hours of Saturday, October 17.
According to the shared assessments, there is a possibility that rainfall will intensify especially around the Istanbul Strait, the eastern parts of the city, and Eastern Marmara. It is stated that if the risk in the forecasts continues, the same regions may receive heavy rainfall again at short intervals.
THE STRIKING PICTURE IN METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
In assessments regarding the new rainfall possibility, attention was drawn to humidity transport maps and the vertical profile of the atmosphere.
Accordingly, the continuation of humidity transport toward the region and the preservation of high humidity levels in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere may create favorable conditions for the formation of heavy rainfall. It is stated that especially if rainfall intensifies within a short time or remains effective in the same areas for a long time, locally high rainfall amounts may be reached.
RAIN PROBABILITY IS HIGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
In the current Istanbul weather forecast available as of October 15, there is also a chance of rain on Saturday, October 17.
According to the forecasts, while the highest temperature during the day will hover around 15 degrees, the probability of precipitation increases during the night hours. Showers are especially expected between 21:00 and 23:00.
However, these forecasts do not mean that a new flood disaster will definitely occur across Istanbul. Uncertainty continues regarding the intensity of the rainfall and which districts it will concentrate in.
WATER-SATURATED SOIL INCREASES THE RISK
One of the factors making the new rainfall possibility important is that, after the previous downpours in Istanbul, the soil is largely saturated with water.
In areas receiving heavy rainfall, the soil's capacity to absorb new precipitation can decrease. In this case, rainwater can more easily accumulate on the surface, flow toward stream beds, and cause flooding in low-lying areas.
It is assessed that a new heavy rainfall, especially in areas affected by the previous flood, may increase existing damage.
THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR EASTERN MARMARA
In the new rainfall scenarios, Eastern Marmara also draws attention alongside Istanbul. Before the rainfall on October 14, the General Directorate of Meteorology had issued a very strong and severe rainfall warning for Kocaeli, Sakarya, and Yalova. It had asked for caution against the risks of floods, inundation, landslides, and disruptions in transportation in these areas.
It is stated that if the new rainfall possibility assessed for October 17 becomes effective in the same regions, the adverse conditions created by previous rainfall may increase the risk.
THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNORSHIP HAD ALSO WARNED UNTIL SATURDAY
In its previous statement based on the assessments of the General Directorate of Meteorology, the Istanbul Governor's Office had reported that intermittent showers and thunderstorms could continue across the city until the afternoon of Saturday, October 17.
In the statement, it was noted that air temperatures were expected to drop 4 to 6 degrees below seasonal norms, and that strong winds could also be effective.
"PREPARATIONS SHOULD NOT BE LEFT TO THE LAST MINUTE"
In the meteorological model assessments, it was emphasized that the new rainfall system should already be closely monitored by authorities. Although the impact area and intensity of the rainfall have not yet been finalized, it was stated that necessary precautions, especially in areas damaged by the flood, should not be delayed.
It is important that citizens also be careful in stream beds, underpasses, basements, and areas at risk of flooding; and that they follow current warnings to be issued by the General Directorate of Meteorology, the Istanbul Governor's Office, and AKOM.