03.04.2026 08:42
JPMorgan pointed out that due to increasing geopolitical tensions and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could rise to the range of $120-130 in the short term, and could exceed $150 in a crisis scenario. The bank noted that if normalization is achieved through negotiations, prices could decline in the second half of the year, while warning that persistently high prices could increase the risk of recession in the global economy.
As rising tensions in global energy markets reshape expectations for oil prices, a striking forecast has come from JPMorgan. In a report published following warnings from Societe Generale, it was indicated that prices have a strong potential for sharp increases.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATION: 130 DOLLARS, 150 DOLLARS IN A CRISIS SCENARIO
According to JPMorgan's investor note, oil prices are expected to rise to a range of 120-130 dollars per barrel in the short term. However, it was warned that prices could exceed 150 dollars if the flow of supply through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted.
BASE SCENARIO: NEGOTIATION AND NORMALIZATION
The bank anticipates that negotiations between the parties will resolve the supply disruption in the strait in its main scenario. In this case, oil prices are expected to remain above 100 dollars throughout the second quarter of the year.
EXPECTATION OF A PULLBACK IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR
According to the report, a downward correction in prices may occur in the later periods of the year with the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the normalization of global oil stocks.
ATTENTION TO RECESSION RISK
JPMorgan emphasized that keeping oil prices at high levels could have serious effects on the global economy. It was stated that prolonged price increases could suppress demand, increasing the risk of economic slowdown and recession.