02.03.2026 16:03
Retired CIA officer Larry C. Johnson argued that it is difficult for the US-Israel alliance to win the war, stating that America's material losses have increased, the destruction of the base in Bahrain has weakened the navy, and that US ships in the Gulf are facing ammunition shortages due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As the war between the US-Israel and Iran continues into its fourth day, retired CIA officer Larry C. Johnson made striking assessments regarding the course of the war. Johnson argued that it is difficult to win this conflict by analyzing the military and logistical situations of the parties involved.
"WINNING THE WAR IS VERY DIFFICULT"
Johnson stated that it is very difficult for America and Israel to win this war, using the expression, "The financial burden and military expenditures have far exceeded expectations." According to Johnson, especially prolonged air operations and the effectiveness of ground troops in the field make it difficult for the parties to achieve their strategic objectives.
"AMERICA'S LOSSES ARE SIGNIFICANT AND INCREASING"
The retired intelligence officer emphasized that the material losses of the US are both increasing and have surpassed sustainable levels. The continuous use of high-tech defense systems and weapon platforms is depleting the country's strategic reserves.
"THE BASE IN BAHRAIN PARALYZED THE GROUND FOOTING"
Johnson argued that the "complete destruction" of a significant American naval base in Bahrain has paralyzed the ground footing of the US Navy. He stated that this loss has severe implications for the sustainability of naval operations in the region.
"IRAN CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ"
According to Johnson, Iran has dealt a serious blow to the US's maritime superiority by strategically closing the Strait of Hormuz. Johnson noted that the ammunition stocks of American naval vessels unable to exit the Persian Gulf are rapidly depleting, saying, "The nearest supply point is 5000 kilometers away."
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas is transported. The closure of this route has caused significant fluctuations in the global energy market, and oil prices rose rapidly.
COMMENTS FROM EXPERTS
Some military analysts also point out that, in parallel with Johnson's assessments, if the conflict prolongs, both sides may face significant logistical and strategic costs. On the other hand, it is reported that Iran is enhancing its naval and air defense capabilities, while the US and its allies are working on new logistical solutions.