14.12.2025 10:40
Earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy reacted strongly to a study published in the journal Science that used the phrases "a large and destructive earthquake is coming to Istanbul." Üşümezsoy stated that the article does not align with the geological structure of the Marmara region and argued that a speculative climate of fear has been created around Istanbul for a long time. He said, "These so-called scientific articles have no credibility whatsoever, as they are published in so-called scientific journals."
The American New York Times (NYT) published a striking analysis for Istanbul due to the seismic activity detected in the depths of the Sea of Marmara. The report, based on a new academic study published in the journal Science, suggested that moderate earthquakes occurring along the Main Marmara Fault are progressing towards a specific point, which could be a precursor to a major earthquake.
"ISTANBUL IS ALMOST AIMED AT"
The analysis stated that the 6.2 magnitude earthquake felt in Istanbul in April 2025 is the last link in this chain. Seismologist Stephen Hicks from University College London argued in his assessment to the New York Times that the risk for Istanbul is increasing, using the expression, "Istanbul is almost aimed at." The study suggested that recent earthquakes have been moving towards a "locked" section of the Marmara Fault, which is 15 to 21 kilometers long, and if this line breaks, a destructive earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher could occur in Istanbul. However, it was also emphasized that it is unknown when and how a possible earthquake would happen.
"THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR CATASTROPHIC SCENARIOS"
This analysis drew criticism from some earthquake experts in Turkey. Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy harshly criticized the study, arguing that the catastrophic scenarios drawn for Istanbul have no scientific basis. In his evaluation published on his YouTube channel, Üşümezsoy claimed that the article in Science does not align with the geological structure of the Marmara and particularly opposed the claims regarding the Islands Fault.
"SAYING ISTANBUL IS NEXT SHOWS IGNORANCE OF GEOLOGY"
Üşümezsoy stated, "Looking at the map and saying earthquakes go from west to east, and Istanbul is next shows ignorance of geology," asserting that the Islands Fault, defined as 'locked' by German researchers, is not active and released its energy with the 1894 earthquake. He argued that a "speculative climate of fear" has been created over Istanbul for a long time and claimed that there is no single fault line in Marmara that could produce an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher that could break from end to end.
"THERE IS NO CREDIBILITY IN SUCH WRITINGS"
Identifying the Kumburgaz Trench as the most risky area, Üşümezsoy stated that a possible rupture in this region could produce an earthquake of a maximum of 6.5 magnitude. He expressed that an earthquake large enough to devastate Istanbul does not align with the current geological realities of the Sea of Marmara, stating, "Today, studies that are unaware of seismic sections are trying to prove these zombie models with some geodetic records. The truth is a completely scientific fact, a fact told by nature. Otherwise, these so-called scientific articles published in so-called scientific journals have no credibility at all."