22.07.2026 17:20
UK-based financial giant HSBC has revised its gold price expectations in line with geopolitical developments in global markets, high real interest rates, and central bank purchases. The bank lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,560 per ounce, while keeping its year-end target steady at $4,750, and predicted that the price per ounce could climb to as high as $5,300 in the long term.
HSBC, one of the world's largest financial institutions based in the UK, has reshaped its gold price expectations in line with geopolitical risks in global markets, the Fed's interest rate policy, and central bank buying strategies. While the bank lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026, it maintained its long-term record targets and optimistic outlook.
2026 AVERAGE FORECAST REVISED
HSBC lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,560 per ounce from $4,864. While this downward revision in the average forecast is said to reflect short-term market conditions, the bank kept its year-end 2026 price target steady at $4,750.
Noting that the long-term upward trend will continue, the bank's year-end gold price targets for upcoming years are listed as follows:
- End of 2027: $5,025
- End of 2028: $5,200
- End of 2029: $5,300
SHORT-TERM RANGE: $3,800 - $4,700
HSBC senior analysts Willem Sels and Lucia Ku emphasized that high real interest rates and a strong dollar could create a flat and suppressed trajectory for gold prices in the short term. The bank expects gold to trade in a range of $3,800 to $4,700 per ounce for the remainder of 2026. According to the analysis, rising US bond yields and dollar strength, along with geopolitical risks such as Iran-US tensions, also create pressure on short-term pricing. However, HSBC Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel stated that the impact of Iran-related geopolitical developments on gold would be temporary.
CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES WILL BE A LIFELINE FOR GOLD
Pointing out that gold's long-term structural upward story remains strong, HSBC noted that the most important supportive factor is strong purchases by central banks. The bank's central bank gold buying expectations are outlined as follows:
- 2026 purchase expectation: 680 tons
- 2027 purchase expectation: 850 tons
FED AND GLOBAL DEBT BURDEN WILL DETERMINE GOLD'S FATE
The report emphasized that despite short-term fluctuations, gold's main direction will be determined by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, bond yields, and the dollar's trajectory. Additionally, rising global public debt, reserve diversification trends, geopolitical risks, and investors' portfolio diversification needs are expected to continue driving gold to record levels in the medium and long term.