09.08.2026 13:20
While global markets saw spot gold close the week at $4,342, six major financial institutions announced their new forecasts. In the expectations of UBS, RBC, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, Citi, and Deutsche Bank, levels of $5,000 and above stood out, with RBC predicting in its bullish scenario that spot gold could approach $5,300.
Gold prices, which have been fluctuating in global markets, recorded their highest weekly close since January, supported by strong central bank purchases and increased safe-haven demand.
Spot gold rose 2.39% on the week, gaining $101.49, and closed the week at $4,342.18 per ounce.
During a period when gold prices hover near record highs, leading global investment banks have also updated their medium- and long-term forecasts.
UBS: $5,000
Swiss investment bank UBS revised its medium- and long-term outlook for gold upward. The bank projects that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2027.
UBS cited central bank purchases, which reached 289 tons in the second quarter and are expected to approach 1,000 tons throughout 2026, as one of the most important drivers of the rally.
According to the bank, central banks' reserve diversification strategy aimed at reducing dollar dependence will continue to support demand for gold.
While warning of potential short-term volatility, UBS viewed levels at or below $4,000 per ounce as strategic buying opportunities for long-term investors. The bank also recommended that investors seeking protection against geopolitical and economic risks allocate a mid-single-digit percentage of their balanced portfolios to gold.
RBC'S BULL SCENARIO NEARS $5,300
RBC Capital Markets also maintained its optimistic outlook for gold prices. In the bank's highest scenario, gold is projected to approach $5,300 per ounce.
According to RBC's bullish model, gold is expected to average $5,132 in the third quarter of 2026 and reach $5,296 throughout 2027.
The bank cited central bank purchases reaching 289 tons in the second quarter and demand from Asian investors shifting toward direct gold bullion instead of jewelry as key factors behind its upward expectation.
It was also noted that renewed inflows into gold ETFs starting in the third quarter have reduced pressure on prices.
In RBC's bearish scenario, gold is projected to remain at $3,661 in 2027. The bank stated that if central banks continue strong purchases, the bullish scenario approaching $5,300 remains on the table.
MORGAN STANLEY PREDICTS $5,200
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management assessed the sharp price movements and ETF fund outflows in the gold market.
The report noted that spot gold has lost 26% from its January record high, attributing the pressure on prices to the Fed's hawkish stance, falling inflation expectations, rising real yields, and a strong U.S. dollar.
It stated that in the first half of 2026, institutional ETF stocks declined to 95 million ounces, pulling gold down to the $4,000 level, with fund outflows contributing to the decline.
Despite short-term headwinds, the bank maintained its "constructive" approach to gold and reiterated its $5,200 year-end target for 2026.
Morgan Stanley also highlighted gold's lack of interest and dividend income and storage costs, recommending investors allocate 1% to 3% tactically to gold in their portfolios.
STANDARD CHARTERED: $5,000 IN THE LONG TERM
Standard Chartered also projected that gold will maintain its upward trend due to strong fundamentals despite short-term fluctuations.
According to an assessment by precious metals analyst Suki Cooper, gold is expected to average $4,200 in the third quarter of 2026, $4,650 in the fourth quarter, and reach $5,000 in the long term.
The bank noted that geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases support prices. It assessed that pressure on gold will remain limited since the Fed's interest rate policy is largely priced in.
Standard Chartered also warned that about 200 tons of loss-making ETF positions acquired at levels of $4,500 and above could create selling pressure during potential rallies.
The bank also projected that artificial intelligence investments, data centers, and electrification initiatives will boost copper demand, supporting industrial metals.
CITIBANK EXPECTS STAGNATION FIRST, THEN A RALLY
Citibank, on the other hand, projected two different scenarios for gold prices in the short and medium term.
The bank expects gold to remain stable, or even pull back slightly, over the next month.
Citi anticipates a strong rally in the final quarter of the year following the short-term stagnation, projecting gold to reach $4,500 per ounce.
According to the bank's expectation, with continued upside momentum, gold will surpass the $5,000 level in the first half of next year.
DEUTSCHE BANK: $4,700 FOR YEAR-END
Deutsche Bank assessed the strong upward trend that began in August 2024. The bank's valuation models indicated a fair value of $4,700 per ounce for gold toward the end of the year.
Although some technical models suggest the possibility of a deeper pullback, Deutsche Bank assessed that the recent correction has formed a base around $3,900.
Continued strong central bank purchases and official sector steps to diversify reserves were cited as key factors supporting the long-term positive outlook.
The bank also projected that geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties in global markets will continue to sustain strong demand for gold.
MAJOR BANKS' EYES ON ABOVE $5,000
The forecasts from six major financial institutions revealed expectations that gold could test record levels again in the coming period.
UBS and Standard Chartered pointed to $5,000, while Citi expects this level to be surpassed. Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of $5,200, while the highest forecast comes from RBC Capital Markets. RBC's bullish scenario points to an average of $5,296 throughout 2027.
Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, projects a fair value of $4,700 for the year-end in the nearer term.