11.04.2025 11:41
The Central Bank has updated its expectations for inflation, the dollar, and interest rates in light of recent changes in economic indicators. Accordingly, the bank has raised its expectations for the dollar, interest rates, and inflation, while making a downward revision to its growth expectations.
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The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the April market survey. The survey results created an impression that the effects of trade wars would be increasingly felt.
According to the results of the Central Bank's April market participants survey, the dollar, which was expected to be 42.79 lira by the end of 2025 in March, rose to 43.60 lira as a result of the April survey. The dollar exchange rate expectation, which was 44.42 lira in the March survey, became 45.85 lira as of April.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION HAS INCREASED
The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was projected to be 42.33% in the previous survey period, while it increased to 46% in this survey period. The expectation for the one-week repo auction interest rate at the end of the current month remained stable at 42.50%, as in the March survey.
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INFLATION IS FORECASTED
The participants' expectation for consumer inflation (CPI) at the end of 2025 was 28.04% in the March survey, while it rose to 29.98% with an increase of 1.94% in the April survey. The CPI expectation for 12 months later was 24.55% in the previous survey period, while it became 25.56% in the April survey. The CPI expectation for two years later was calculated as 17.06% and 17.69% in the respective survey periods.
DECREASE IN GROWTH EXPECTATION
The participants' expectation for GDP growth in 2025 experienced a decline of 0.1% compared to the previous survey period. The expectation, which was 3.1% in the previous period, became 3% as of April. The GDP growth expectation for 2026 decreased from 4.0% in the previous survey period to 3.8% in this survey period.
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