08.04.2025 13:00
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, suggested that China's response to U.S. tariffs could result in a depreciation of the yuan, potentially triggering a capital flight that could reignite the Bitcoin bull market. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou supported this view, emphasizing that historical data shows Chinese capital tends to flow into Bitcoin when the yuan declines.
The escalation of the US-China trade tensions could serve as a significant catalyst for the crypto markets. Hayes noted that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) monetary policy could lead to a shift of capital into Bitcoin, just as it did in 2013 and 2015. This situation became even more pronounced on April 7, with the US president's promise to increase additional tariffs and China's declaration of "we will fight to the end."
The Decline in Yuan Value May Increase Interest in Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, stated on April 8 on the X platform (formerly known as Twitter) that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) could reignite the bull trend in the crypto markets. Hayes indicated that the possibility of China devaluing its currency against American tariffs could redirect capital flight into Bitcoin.
Hayes, who said, "If it's not the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will give us the Yahtzee materials," emphasized that similar scenarios occurred in 2013 and 2015 and could also be effective in 2025. Supporting this view, Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou suggested that China would attempt to devalue the yuan against tariffs.
Historical data partially supports these theories. In August 2015, the Chinese yuan depreciated by about 2% against the US dollar, marking the largest single-day drop seen in decades. While interest in Bitcoin increased during this period, the direct causal relationship remains a topic of debate.
Similarly, in August 2019, when the yuan fell below the symbolic 7:1 ratio against the US dollar, an increase in Bitcoin prices was observed. Some analysts claim that Chinese investors used Bitcoin as a hedge to protect their assets, resulting in a 20% increase in prices.
According to Grayscale's 2019 report, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan positively affected Bitcoin markets at that time. Analysts indicate that wealthy Chinese citizens used cryptocurrencies to avoid capital controls within the country and to move their wealth beyond government access. Currency devaluations can also undermine trust in central banks, increasing interest in decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin.