06.03.2026 09:22
The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices have shaken global markets, while the dollar/TL exchange rate has reached a historic level. The dollar has risen to an all-time high against the Turkish Lira, reaching 44.0780 lira. On the other hand, it was stated that the Central Bank has sold 12 billion dollars to ease the markets since the beginning of the war.
As the war that began with the attacks of the USA and Israel on Iran entered its seventh day, tensions in the region increased while financial markets experienced fluctuations. With the rise in demand for safe havens, the dollar gained value against global currencies.
IRAN'S NEW ATTACKS AFFECTED MARKETS
The Tehran administration launched new missile and drone attacks in the Gulf region. US President Donald Trump expressed his desire to play a role in the process of determining Iran's next leader. Trump stated that he does not see the late religious leader's son, Khamenei, as a possible candidate.
OIL PRICES INCREASED INFLATION FEARS
Tensions in the Middle East also pushed oil prices up. Rising oil costs increased concerns that global inflation could accelerate again, while markets began to price in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might postpone interest rate cuts. These developments particularly put pressure on the currencies of economies dependent on oil imports.
FED INTEREST RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED
Expectations for a Fed interest rate cut that were previously anticipated in July have been postponed to September or October. The dollar being the currency that gained the most value against the euro this week also drew attention. Analysts indicate that the high dependence of European economies on Middle Eastern oil has played a role in this rise.
HISTORICAL RECORD IN DOLLAR/TRY
The dollar, which has been relatively stable against the Turkish Lira in recent days, broke its four-day resistance and rose to 44.0780 lira. Thus, the dollar/TRY rate reached a historical peak.
NEW STEPS FROM THE CENTRAL BANK
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey took two significant steps against the increased financial volatility due to the Iran war. The bank announced that it has suspended one-week repo auctions and has started Turkish lira-settled forward foreign exchange selling transactions. With the Central Bank starting to fund banks at the 40% level, an increase in interest rates was observed, and it was stated that deposit interest rates have also risen.
NEW BALANCE FOR FOREIGN CURRENCY DEMAND
Thanks to the implemented Turkish lira-settled forward foreign exchange selling transactions, it was stated that companies in need of foreign currency could obtain it through the Central Bank instead of turning directly to the free market. Economists express that this step aims to balance the demand for foreign currency in the market.
CENTRAL BANK SOLD 12 BILLION DOLLARS
During the global market fluctuations triggered by the war in Iran, Turkey spent 12 billion dollars, equivalent to about 15% of its foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the stability of the lira.