The IMF has maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3.2 percent.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that global economic growth is expected to remain stable but weak, maintaining its growth forecast at 3.2% for this year.

IMF published the October edition of the World Economic Outlook Report under the title "Policy Change, Increasing Threats".

The report indicated that global economic growth is projected to remain stable but weak, with a growth forecast of 3.2% for this year and next year. In its July forecasts, the IMF had predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% this year and 3.3% next year. The report noted that the expectation for global economic growth five years from now remains "mediocre" at 3.1%, compared to the pre-COVID-19 average, stating that persistent structural barriers such as an aging population and weak productivity hinder potential growth in many economies.

DOWNWARD RISKS TO THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK

The IMF report emphasized that risks to the global outlook are showing a downward trend during a period of high policy uncertainty. The report also pointed to a decline in global inflation, predicting that headline inflation, which peaked at 9.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, will fall to 3.5% by the end of next year. It was stated in the report that the battle against global inflation has largely been won, but price pressures continue in some countries, and that inflation returning to levels close to central bank targets opens the way for a triple change in monetary policy, fiscal policy, and structural reforms.

GROWTH FORECAST FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY LOWERED

The report, which also shared economic growth forecasts for countries, stated that the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 3% this year and 2.7% next year. In its July forecasts, the IMF had predicted that the Turkish economy would grow by 3.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. The report indicated that inflation expectations for the Turkish economy are 43% for the end of this year and 24% for the end of 2025, while the unemployment forecast was set at 9.3% for 2024 and 9.9% for 2025.

US ECONOMY GROWTH FORECAST RAISED

The report noted that the growth expectation for the US economy has been raised from 2.6% to 2.8% for 2024, while the growth forecast for the country’s economy for next year has been increased from 1.9% to 2.2%.

NEGATIVE OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA

The report stated that the growth forecast for the Euro Area economy has been lowered from 0.9% to 0.8% for this year and from 1.5% to 1.2% for 2025. It was noted in the report that the growth forecast for Germany, one of Europe's leading economies, has been reduced from 0.2% to 0% for this year and from 1.3% to 0.8% for next year, while the growth expectation for the French economy has been raised from 0.9% to 1.1% for this year and lowered from 1.3% to 1.1% for next year.

The report indicated that the growth forecast for the Italian economy has been kept at 0.7% for 2024 and lowered from 0.9% to 0.8% for next year, while the growth forecast for the Spanish economy has been raised from 2.4% to 2.9% for this year and maintained at 2.1% for next year.

In the IMF report, it was stated that the growth expectation for the UK economy has been raised from 0.7% to 1.1% for this year, while it has been kept stable at 1.5% for next year. The growth forecast for the Japanese economy has been lowered from 0.7% to 0.3% for this year and raised from 1% to 1.1% for next year.

GROWTH EXPECTATION FOR THE CHINESE ECONOMY LOWERED

The report stated that in the group of emerging markets and developing economies, the growth expectation for the Chinese economy has been lowered from 5% to 4.8% for this year, while it has been kept stable at 4.5% for next year.