The 3.5-month peak below has been broken, markets are on fire! Is the US-Iran tension an 'opportunity' or a 'trap'?

The 3.5-month peak below has been broken, markets are on fire! Is the US-Iran tension an 'opportunity' or a 'trap'?

24.08.2026 10:21

As the dollar weakened in global markets, gold increased its 'safe haven' appeal. The price of gold per ounce approached $4,650, reaching its highest level since mid-May. While debt concerns in the US and geopolitical risks supported gold, markets are focused on new data that will guide the Fed's interest rate policy. Meanwhile, Iran's decision to charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the US's 'endgame' move also disrupted balances in the markets.

The ounce price of gold continued its rally from last week, rising to approximately $4,650. Thus, the precious metal reached its highest level since mid-May.

BECAME AN ALTERNATIVE STORE OF VALUE

The rise was driven by renewed concerns about U.S. debt management and the fiscal outlook after the U.S. Treasury Department unexpectedly increased its long-term debt buyback program. Following these developments, bond yields and the dollar declined, while investors' search for protection against depreciation strengthened. This picture increased gold's appeal as an alternative store of value.

Geopolitical risks were also among the factors supporting gold prices. The U.S.'s new sanctions threats against Iran increased concerns that Iranian oil supply could be disrupted, creating upward pressure on energy prices. It is assessed that a potential rise in oil prices could narrow the Fed's room for maneuver regarding interest rate cuts.

RECORD AFTER RECORD

On Friday, the gram of gold closed the day at 7,109 liras, up 1.95% from the previous close. Starting the first trading day of the week on a buying note, the gram of gold was trading at 7,189 liras as of 09:25, up 1.16% from the previous close. At the same minutes, quarter gold was sold for 11,750 liras, and Republic gold for 46,784 liras.

THE RISE DOES NOT STOP

The U.S. Treasury Department's doubling of its long-term bond buyback operations last week, along with weakening expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and the dollar's loss of strength, continues the rise in the ounce price of gold.

While expectations that the U.S. Treasury could increase its interventions in the bond market sustain pressure on the dollar, this situation plays a significant role in the rise in gold.

PEAK OF THREE AND A HALF MONTHS

Supported by a weakening dollar and the curbing of the rise in bond yields, the ounce of gold reached $4,657 on the new day, seeing its highest level in about 3.5 months. The ounce of gold is currently finding buyers at $4,650, up 1%.

On the other hand, the U.S. growth data and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, an inflation indicator, are among the important topics in focus for investors. The data is expected to guide expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate path based on the strength of economic activity and the course of inflation.

MIDDLE EAST UNCERTAINTY

On the geopolitical front, the lack of a concrete result from the negotiations in the Middle East and the mutual standoffs spreading beyond the military front into the economic sphere are increasing existing uncertainties. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce new economic sanctions against Iran today.

Accordingly, oil prices, which remain high as the geopolitical shadows over the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for energy supply, do not lift, keep concerns about inflationary pressures on a global scale alive.

The fact that oil prices are still high due to geopolitical risks stands out among the factors creating pressure on gold.

Analysts stated that today, domestic data including the financial services confidence index, sectoral inflation expectations, household expectation survey, and foreign currency assets and liabilities of firms outside the financial sector will be monitored, while the data calendar abroad will be calm.

TENSION THAT TURNED MARKETS UPSIDE DOWN

Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission approved an article stipulating charging fees for services to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The statement came following Iran's decision.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that in the war that began with the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, they have entered the "endgame," expressing that their aim is "to sever every economic lifeline until Tehran is isolated."

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