Conflict risks have driven gold prices up amid high inflation pressures globally, while central banks have also made significant purchases. Starting the year at $2062 per ounce, gold closed at $2650 with a 28.50% premium by the end of November. With the beginning of the Republican era in the U.S. next year, it is expected that central banks will continue to diversify their reserves and maintain gold purchases. TURKEY BECAME THE SECOND COUNTRY WITH THE MOST GOLD PURCHASESThis year, Turkey has been seen competing for the top spot in gold purchases, surpassing major countries like India and China. In the first three quarters of 2024, Turkey became the second country with the highest gold purchases, acquiring 55.2 tons. Poland ranked first with 61 tons, while India came in third with 51.1 tons. COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST GOLD PURCHASES IN 2024According to the World Gold Council, IMF data, and data from national central banks, the top 10 countries with the highest gold purchases in the first three quarters of this year are as follows: 1-Poland: 61.0 tons 2-Turkey: 55.2 tons 3-India: 51.1 tons 4-China: 28.9 tons 5-Azerbaijan (State Fund): 25.2 tons 6-Czech Republic: 15.7 tons 7-Hungary: 15.5 tons 8-Mongolia: 10.3 tons 9-Iraq: 10.1 tons 10-Qatar: 9.7 tons THE CENTRAL BANK'S GOLD RESERVES ARE INCREASINGMeanwhile, according to the latest data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), as of November 22, gold reserves increased by $3 billion 310 million, reaching $65 billion 904 million. Considering that total reserves amount to $156 billion 639 million, the share of gold reserves has become 42%. WHAT IS THE GOLD PRICE IN TL?Looking at the latest situation in gold prices, the gram gold price in the free market completed the week of November 29, 2024, at 2960 TL. The physical gram selling price was 3060 TL. In global markets, the ounce gold price closed at $2650. Last month, ounce gold peaked at $2790, but after the U.S. elections, it faced profit-taking, dropping to $2536 at the beginning of November. In the last two weeks, however, ounce gold has turned its direction upward, responding to news from the Russia-Ukraine front and the Middle East. THE FED'S STANCE IS CRUCIALIn addition to geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar pricing in global markets is also affecting the volatility in gold prices. The latest economic data from the U.S. does not fully indicate a cooling; moreover, expectations regarding a "strong dollar" and "inflationary pressures" during the Republican era in 2025 have caused uncertainty in recent weeks regarding interest rate cuts by the Fed. 2025 GOLD TARGET PRICEIn light of all these developments, global investment banks have also announced their 2025 targets. Goldman Sachs predicts that ounce gold will reach $3150 in December 2025, JP Morgan forecasts $3000, and UBS estimates $2950. These predictions indicate an expected increase of up to 18.85% in gold prices on an ounce basis next year.
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