03.09.2026 13:11
Economist Belgin Mavish, who was a guest on the program 'Serpin Alparslan ile Rotamız Ekonomi,' broadcast live on Haberler.com screens, made evaluations regarding August inflation figures, oil prices, interest rate policy, and the Medium-Term Program. Mavish said, 'I do not expect any change from the central bank at the meeting on September 10th,' stating that she expects the Central Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at its September meeting.
While all eyes were on the Central Bank's interest rate decision on September 10, economist Belgin Maviş, a guest on the program 'Our Route Economy with Serpin Alparslan,' made assessments regarding the economic outlook. As expectations built in the markets for the Central Bank to cut interest rates, economist Belgin Maviş stated that she does not expect a cut at the September 10 meeting.
WILL THE CENTRAL BANK RAISE OR CUT INTEREST RATES?
During the program, Maviş was asked, "While central banks around the world are raising interest rates, do you expect a change in interest rate policy from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey?" Maviş, stating that she believes the tight monetary policy will continue, made the following assessment: "Given the current picture, unfortunately, due to reasons beyond our control but binding on us, the tight stance will continue despite a moderate outlook."
"I DO NOT EXPECT A CHANGE AT THE SEPTEMBER 10 MEETING"
Maviş, revealing her most definitive forecast regarding the Central Bank's September meeting, said, "In other words, it would not be right to expect any interest rate change from our Central Bank at the September meeting." Noting that a different step could come regarding the upper band, Maviş stated, "After this meeting, it could signal that it has brought the upper band, the level at which it funds the market at 40%, back down to the policy rate level of 37%."
When asked what the impact of this would be on the market, she gave the following answer: "I think there would be a psychological effect. But looking at the implications, in the ensuing period, the market might also perceive that if the Central Bank did this now, it could create the image that it can achieve somewhat more numerical success in the fight against inflation in the upcoming period." Maviş then made her most unequivocal statement: "It is a remote possibility, but I do not expect a change from the Central Bank at the September 10 meeting."
"INTEREST RATE CUT COULD BE POSTPONED TO THE NEXT MEETING"
Maviş stated that the Medium-Term Program could be decisive for Central Bank decisions. "If the Central Bank is to make a change in interest rates following this Medium-Term Program, it could postpone it in the direction of a cut, not to the September meeting but to the subsequent one."
"INFLATION CAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS"
Following the announcement of August inflation figures at 1.84% monthly, Maviş evaluated the figures as follows:
"Yes, it came exactly in line with expectations. The monthly expectation was around 1.86%. The actual figure was 1.84%. Along with this, 31.52% was expected on an annual basis, and it materialized at 31.51%. The market, that is, we economists, saw figures in line with our expectations."
Maviş, drawing attention to the impact of the rise in education expenditures on inflation, said, "Therefore, while education took the lead, transportation and food prices, which had continued to rise in previous months, remained considerably behind it, when we look at it from this perspective."
DREW ATTENTION TO OIL PRICES
When asked about the high costs in transportation and food, Maviş stated that oil prices affect many items. "In the segments you have listed, no matter which stone we lift, rising oil prices and the resulting costs are cited as the reason. In previous periods, the rise in the dollar was always cited as a reason for pricing. Now when we look, when we lift that stone, we see not the dollar underneath, but oil."
WILL BREATHING ROOM LOANS REFLECT ON PRODUCTION?
When asked about the impact of breathing room loans and support for the business world on the economy, Maviş emphasized that these steps could spread debts over maturities, but the truly important point was production.
"Now, breathing room loans involve spreading existing debts over a certain maturity and, by ensuring cash flow, paying off these debts and unpaid taxes within these maturities; how much of this will be reflected in economic activity and how much in the production side will, of course, raise question marks. What matters here is to increase production, that is, to pay off debts through production. To spread indebtedness over maturity."
"REAL GROWTH IS ACHIEVED THROUGH INDUSTRY"
Also making assessments regarding the growth structure of the Turkish economy, Maviş stated that sustainable growth comes through high value-added production.
"You transition to value-added, high value-added industrial production. In other words, you realize an industrial revolution. If industry does not function, this affects the banking sector the most, and if the banking sector and industry do not grow, you remain far from achieving sustainable economic growth or targets."