27.06.2026 13:16
While the sharp decline in ounce and gram gold worries investors, a critical analysis came from an expert. Associate Professor Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz, a faculty member at Uludağ University, stated that the hawkish messages from the US Central Bank strengthened the dollar, hitting gold. Expressing that investors have turned away from gold, Eryılmaz emphasized that prices will not continuously drop until September, and the direction will be entirely determined by inflation and employment data coming from the US.
The consecutive sharp declines in ounce and gram gold have left millions of investors grappling with the question, "Will gold prices continue to fall?" Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz, a faculty member at Uludağ University, who unveiled the background of this market-shaking decline, evaluated the reasons for the bleeding in gold and the critical dates. Eryılmaz stated that the market has been turned upside down by the "hawkish" U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policies.
WHY IS GOLD FALLING?
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz expressed that geopolitical risks and volatility in oil prices have disrupted the conventional dynamics on gold. Emphasizing that under normal conditions, a decline in oil prices should lift gold, Eryılmaz explained the reason for the positive correlation with these words: "Recently, the Fed disrupted the market. The U.S. central bank's projections told us, 'America may raise interest rates, at least one or more.' This significantly strengthened the dollar. As the dollar strengthened, gold and silver, assets highly sensitive to Fed policies, came under severe pressure. Investors had already turned sour on gold, which had fallen below certain supports and weakened technically. Add the hawkish Fed to that; even though oil is falling and war expectations are easing, the 'Fed will raise rates' pricing has driven gold down sharply."
"BANK OF AMERICA EXPECTS 3 INTEREST RATE HIKES"
Reminding that interest rate hike expectations are already priced into the markets, Eryılmaz drew attention to the differences in forecasts and confusion among institutions: "Currently, the market is pricing in two interest rate hike expectations—one in September and the other in March next year. However, Bank of America recently claimed that the Fed will raise rates not just once, but a total of three times this year. So, there's a lot of confusion. But when I look at economic data, I don't think rates can be raised that much. If the worst of inflation is behind us, the Fed might hike once, or if the labor market slows, it might not hike at all."
WILL THE DECLINE CONTINUE UNTIL SEPTEMBER?
Responding with a clear "No" to the question, "Will gold be in a constant downtrend until the September interest rate decision?", Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz outlined the new path gold investors should follow. Noting that with the new chair, the Fed has entered a period of, "I don't make promises about the future, look at the data," Eryılmaz emphasized that the pricing power of macroeconomic data has peaked: "Inflation (PCE) data coming from the U.S. is critically important. If U.S. data shows inflation is falling, the worst is behind us, and economic growth is slowing somewhat, the pace of recovery in gold will become a bit more pronounced. Otherwise, in a negative scenario, pressure will increase. From now on, the direction of gold will be entirely determined by economic data from the U.S."