30.08.2026 15:51
According to DEÜ research, the 185 earthquakes in the Marmara region constitute an 'earthquake storm' developing on the branches of the Adalar Fault, not on its locked main strand. Scientists emphasize that this is not a precursor to a major earthquake, but that the region remains at risk.
A seismological study conducted by Dokuz Eylül University (DEU) Earthquake Research and Application Center on 185 earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara Sea between August 18-20 revealed that the tremors did not occur directly on the Adalar Fault, but rather constituted an "earthquake storm" developing on the fault's branches.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-SUPPORTED STUDIES WERE CONDUCTED
Center Director Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir and Research Assistant Dr. Can Eytemiz conducted seismological analyses on 185 earthquakes, the smallest being 1.4 and the largest 3.2 in magnitude.
In the artificial intelligence-supported study, Sözbilir and Eytemiz determined that the earthquakes were seismic activity developing on the branches of the Adalar Fault.
Prof. Dr. Sözbilir, a member of the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) Earthquake Science Board and Director of the DEU Earthquake Research and Application Center, told the AA correspondent that they have been scanning earthquakes recorded in the area since 2010 in 7-day periods.
Stating that their seismic study relates to earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara Sea between August 18 and 20, Sözbilir said, "What we saw is that the sequence of earthquakes at a certain scale did not occur directly on the Adalar Fault. In other words, we can evaluate this as seismic activity developing on the branches of the Adalar Fault, which we classify as a locked fault."
"WE CANNOT SAY THAT A BIG EARTHQUAKE WILL FOLLOW"
Sözbilir, noting that the "earthquake storm" lasted for a few days and then suddenly ended, stated the following:
"We cannot say that 'a big earthquake will follow' because these earthquakes occurred. This is an activity that has been continuing in the Marmara Region for centuries. Therefore, this is just one of the earthquake storms lasting a few days in the form of such clusters. If you pay attention to the map, the 1999 earthquake actually reached as far as our Gebze area, and later segments such as the Adalar Fault and the Kumburgaz Segment are expected to break. Scientists all over the world say these faults will break in the future. There is no different view regarding these; in scientific studies on a global scale, it has been determined that there is locking in certain parts of the Adalar Fault and the Kumburgaz Fault. This means they are accumulating stress and strain without producing earthquakes. Therefore, in the future, they will release that energy."
"NO CONCLUSION CAN BE REACHED THAT THEY ARE FORESHOCKS"
Research Assistant Dr. Can Eytemiz, who took part in the study, said that during the two-day "earthquake storm," they used scientific software to relocate the earthquakes back to their true positions.
Stating that they determined the "earthquake storm" was not on the locked segment, Eytemiz said, "Because it is very close to the locked zone, I can say that especially a study should be conducted, meaning this area should be put under a magnifying glass. Since this is a region known to have an earthquake hazard that has been mentioned for years, this situation will not pose a risk. The forecast is like this, but I believe it must definitely be put under a magnifying glass and examined meticulously. Earthquakes of this magnitude are not expected to have such a triggering power. No scientifically consistent conclusion can be reached that such earthquakes could be foreshocks."