26.08.2026 17:22
On Deribit, 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Friday at 11:00 AM Turkey time. This expiration, with a notional value of $6.44 billion, comes right after Bitcoin surged from $62,000 to $80,000 within a week.
Bitcoin's rise over the past week was its second-largest weekly move in several years. The rally has made hedging trades, which market makers may execute to balance their positions, more significant.
The distribution of expiring contracts is split into two sides. Of the total, 44,639 are call options and 37,061 are put options. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.83, meaning the call side is ahead in number.
It should be noted that this ratio alone does not indicate direction. A portion of call options can be used in strategies not tied to market direction, such as covered positions or volatility trades. Put options can also serve as portfolio insurance rather than direct bearish positions.
Understanding what the two terms mean also makes reading the table easier. A call option gives its holder the right to buy at a specified price. A put option gives its holder the right to sell at a specified price. The option buyer pays an upfront premium for this right.
The two largest concentrations of call options are at strike prices of $75,000 and $80,000. The $75,000 level carries the highest call option accumulation with a notional value of $236 million. The $80,000 level follows with $157 million.
The result of the rally comes into play at this point. When Bitcoin rose to $80,000, call options with strike prices below this level moved into profitable territory. For these options to actually book profits, the intrinsic value must exceed the premium paid and other transaction costs.
The concentration at these two levels directly concerns market makers. These institutions balance their option risks by buying and selling Bitcoin, futures, or other related instruments. As the price approaches a strike level with heavy open interest, the sensitivity of options to price movement increases, and the need for hedging grows. This process is called gamma hedging.
Hedging trades can produce two different outcomes. Depending on the net position of market makers, these trades can keep the price at concentrated strike levels or accelerate the move when the price moves significantly away from these levels.
FERNANDO: HALF A BILLION DOLLARS WITHIN 5% OF THE PRICE
Deribit's Chief Risk Officer, Shaun Fernando, says the expiry is worth watching. Fernando stated, "There is a notional value exceeding half a billion dollars within a 5% price move from the current price. This is expected to increase gamma hedging activity as the expiry approaches."
Fernando describes two possible outcomes in a second sentence. The executive said, "This could create unusual price pinning around key strike prices, or it could accelerate the move once these levels are breached."
Neither outcome is considered a definitive forecast. The direction of market makers' hedging trades depends on net positions that are not visible in aggregate open interest data. In a price-pinning scenario, Bitcoin remains around major strike prices like $80,000. In a clear breakout, hedging trades can accelerate the existing move.
Volatility indicators also changed direction within a week. According to Fernando, about 20% of Bitcoin open interest on Deribit expires at this expiry. Over the same period, the Deribit Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) rose by 30%. The volatility term structure shifted from backwardation, where near-term expected volatility is high, to a contango structure, where longer-dated volatility is higher. The implied volatility skew between call and put options also turned from negative to positive, indicating higher volatility attributed to the call side.
HIGHEST PAIN LEVEL AT $68,000
There is another calculation frequently discussed before the expiry. The max pain point for this expiry is around $68,000. This calculation estimates the settlement price at which the greatest total option value would be nullified, resulting in the lowest total payout to holders.
It should also be added that this figure is not a reliable price target. The calculation does not fully account for hedging trades, the purchase prices of contracts, positions held outside a single exchange, spot demand, and changing macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin's publication price is approximately $11,000 above the $68,000 max pain point. A drop to $68,000 before settlement would require a much larger move than returning to the $75,000 and $80,000 strike clusters.
The expiry will occur on Friday at 11:00 AM Turkey time. Investors will watch whether Bitcoin stays near $80,000, retreats toward $75,000, or moves beyond the concentrated strike prices. If near-term hedging demand disappears after settlement, volatility could decline.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $78,612. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $79,577, with an intraday low of $77,811.