06.08.2026 17:40
Silver in global markets has gained 62.74 percent over the past year, outpacing gold, while Wall Street giants have brought scenarios of $100 for silver and $5,000 per ounce for gold to the agenda. In this historic rally, where the gram price of gold has exceeded 6,500 Turkish Lira, the deepening supply deficit and industrial demand are bringing records along with them.
As global markets keep their eyes on gold, silver has outpaced gold in the returns race with its performance over the past year. With a supply deficit persisting for six consecutive years and strong demand from industry, silver prices have reached record levels, and Wall Street's major banks have announced their new forecasts.
SILVER LEAPS AHEAD OF GOLD IN ANNUAL RETURNS
According to data from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), silver has gained 62.74 percent over the past year, clearly surpassing gold's annual return of 26.15 percent. While the spot price of silver trades at $61-62 per ounce, gold's spot price hovers in the $4,200-4,300 range. The gold-to-silver ratio has declined to 68.47. Silver's critical role in areas such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, solar panels, and data centers is increasingly boosting its physical demand.
DEEPENING SUPPLY DEFICIT AND CHINESE DEMAND
According to the 2026 World Silver Survey, a supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces is projected in the global market this year. The cumulative supply deficit since 2021 has reached 762 million ounces. Since silver is mostly mined as a by-product, production cannot respond quickly to rising demand.
Meanwhile, China set a record with quarterly imports of 1,626 tons at the start of 2026, while India's increase of import duties to 15 percent stands out as a factor slowing shipments.
FORECASTS FOR SILVER FROM 6 MAJOR BANKS
Six leading Wall Street financial giants have revised their silver forecasts in line with structural changes in the market:
- Goldman Sachs: $85 – $100
- Bank of America: $86 (Annual average)
- HSBC: $75 (Average)
- UBS: $70
- Commerzbank: $67
- JPMorgan: $60 – $65
GOLD AT 7-WEEK HIGH: GRAM GOLD EXCEEDS 6,500 TL
Spot gold is also joining the rally in silver. Extending its rise to a fourth day in global markets, the spot gold price climbed to $4,285.84 per ounce, while gram gold tested levels above 6,500 TL in the domestic market.
Key factors supporting the rally:
- The depreciation of the US dollar and the decline in bond yields,
- Falling oil prices on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, softening inflation concerns,
- Increased preference for gold, which yields no interest.
$5,000 SCENARIO FOR GOLD AND FED EXPECTATIONS
IG Market Analyst Tony Sycamore noted that diplomatic steps in the Middle East have weakened rate hike expectations. Sycamore stated that if spot gold remains above its 200-day moving average, it could trigger a new rally toward the $5,000 level. While the probability of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at its September meeting has declined from 67 percent to 55 percent, it is anticipated that if the upcoming US non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, the upward trend in precious metals will strengthen.