08.08.2026 08:10
US intelligence has assessed that Russia could carry out a limited attack on NATO territory in Europe or conduct operations through armed groups. The period between autumn 2026 and 2029 was indicated for a possible attack, with Poland and Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania cited as likely targets.
It has been claimed that US intelligence has assessed that Russia could potentially carry out a military move against NATO territory in Europe.
According to a report on CNN, US intelligence previously held the view that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not risk a direct confrontation with NATO while the war in Ukraine continues. However, it was stated that this intelligence assessment changed this year.
It was reported that NATO members believe Moscow has already carried out various probing attacks to test the alliance's defense capabilities and weaken its unity.
INCREASED PATROL ACTIVITIES OF FIGHTER JETS
It was noted that in recent weeks, Western fighter jets have taken off three times to shoot down unmanned aerial vehicles, and Ukraine recently intercepted a drone that entered Romanian airspace.
The report claimed that Russia continues to probe the West's defense capabilities and that in July, fighter jets took off more than 250 percent more than in the same month a year earlier.
According to US intelligence assessments, the time frame for a potential Russian move is indicated as between autumn 2026 and 2029.
NATO: "WE ARE PREPARING FOR EVERY SCENARIO"
NATO Spokesperson Colonel Martin O'Donnell stated that the alliance is focusing on different scenarios, saying, "We always think about and prepare for every scenario."
O'Donnell expressed that NATO is closely monitoring developments and is ready to use its deterrence and defense capabilities when necessary.
It was stated that potential threat scenarios range from a cyber attack on a NATO country, to the sending of unmarked armed groups with the intent of invasion, and to a limited attack on the alliance's eastern flank.
POLAND AND BALTIC STATES COME TO THE FOREFRONT
The report included assessments that Poland or the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania could be targets in a potential Russian move.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had previously stated that they had information about potential "kinetic operations" originating from Russia and had warned that critical infrastructure could be targeted.
GARRY KASPAROV'S WARNING ON NATO BORDERS
Russian opposition politician and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov also argued that the likelihood of Russia testing NATO borders has increased.
Polish security experts, on the other hand, warned that Russia and Belarus could send a limited number of troops across the NATO border, as well as target energy infrastructure with air strikes.
These assessments came to the fore at a time when new developments are occurring regarding the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.