11.12.2025 09:20
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will announce the last interest rate decision of the year at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting today at 2:00 PM. Broad-based surveys in the markets indicate expectations for an interest rate cut.
The focal point in the economy is the year-end interest rate decision to be announced today by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). After revising the interest corridor downwards in October, the Central Bank will announce its new step regarding the policy interest rate at the final meeting of 2025.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be held at 14:00 under the leadership of President Fatih Karahan. In the previous meeting, the CBRT had lowered the policy interest rate from 40.5% to 39.5%.
MARKET EXPECTATION OF A 150 BASIS POINT CUT
Before the critical meeting, a survey involving 22 market experts indicated that the median expectation among economists is for a 150 basis point cut in interest rates.
The distribution of expectations in the survey is as follows:
- 5 participants: 100 basis point cut
- 13 participants: 150 basis point cut
- 4 participants: 250 basis point cut
According to these results, the average interest rate expectation was calculated at 38.02%. It was noted that the year-end expectation in the previous survey period was 37.5%.
PRESIDENT KARAHAN'S "TIGHT STANCE" MESSAGE
While the expectation of a rate cut strengthens in the markets, the emphasis on "tight monetary policy" in previous statements by Central Bank President Fatih Karahan draws attention.
Karahan had previously stated regarding the fight against inflation, "The tight monetary policy stance will continue until price stability is achieved, and it will strengthen the disinflation process through the demand, exchange rate, and expectation channels."
This message raises questions about the pace of interest rate cuts.