30.06.2026 00:50
Pawel Szota, head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency, said that given the scale of threats originating from Russia, the country should consider a potential armed conflict as a near-term possibility. Szota noted that even if Russia becomes exhausted in Ukraine, it has the capacity to sustain the war for years; he emphasized that Moscow could undertake serious provocations targeting the Baltic states in line with its imperial ambitions.
Pawel Szota, head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency (Agencja Wywiadu), stated in an interview with the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita that the real and direct military threat to Poland primarily comes from Russia, noting that Moscow sees Poland and NATO's eastern flank countries as an obstacle to its "imperial" goals.
“WE MUST CONSIDER AN ARMED CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA AS A NEAR-TERM POSSIBILITY”
Szota, pointing out that Russia's failure to achieve the quick results it expected in the war in Ukraine creates new risks for the Kremlin, warned that Moscow could escalate the conflict further.
Emphasizing that the risk of a direct military attack beyond drone strikes, cyberattacks, and hybrid warfare methods should not be overlooked, Szota said the level of aggression on the Russian side is very high and the risk of military conflict is real.
Szota conveyed his views, stating, "Considering the totality of threats originating from the Kremlin, we should shape our stance accordingly and, in our daily activities, treat an armed conflict with Russia as a near-term possibility."
“PUTIN WILL NOT ABANDON THIS WAR BECAUSE HE MUST PRESENT HIMSELF AS A WINNER”
Explaining that according to Polish intelligence analyses, Russia has the capacity to sustain the war in Ukraine for several more years, Szota said the Kremlin is ready to make sacrifices in many areas, including societal welfare, investments, and economic development, and will not abandon the war.
Noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin must present the war as a success due to domestic political reasons, Szota stated, "Putin will not abandon this war because he must show himself as a winner, especially in domestic politics."
Szota stated that Putin, facing the consequences of miscalculations made by Russian intelligence and the military at the start of the war, is increasingly finding it difficult to end the conflict on his terms under current conditions, which could push Moscow toward more unpredictable decisions.
"TESTING NATO WILL ABSOLUTELY CONTINUE"
Stating that Russia's attempts to test NATO will continue, Szota noted that Polish intelligence considers the possibility of serious Russian provocations against the Baltic countries as a realistic scenario.
"Testing NATO will absolutely continue," Szota said, adding that Russia closely monitors the alliance's reactions and, seeing that NATO mostly responds politically, it increasingly pushes the "red lines" further.
Szota explained that Russia continuously tries new methods to see how far it can go, emphasizing that as of today, no scenario can be excluded.
ALSO WARNED ABOUT BELARUS
Also issuing warnings about Belarus, Szota noted that Russia's influence over the Belarusian military is increasing, and that preparations for infrastructure related to systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons, along with associated rhetoric, are being closely monitored.
Pointing out that Polish intelligence maintains direct communication channels with the Belarusian administration, Szota said these contacts are important for managing security issues between the two countries.
Szota added that Poland will not remain passive against aggressive attempts directed at it.