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Millions of workers, civil servants, and retirees are focused on salary increases for January. Civil servants, civil servant retirees, and worker retirees receive raises based on the 6-month increase rate.
With the Central Bank raising its inflation forecast, expectations regarding the salary increase rate have also changed.
With October, the four-month inflation has emerged. The total inflation for July, August, September, and October was calculated to be 12.06 percent. The increase rates will be finalized with the inflation rates of November and December.
INFLATION FORECAST RAISED
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) raised its year-end inflation forecast by 6 points, increasing it from 38 percent to 44 percent.
The 2025 forecast was raised from 14 percent to 21 percent.
The 2026 forecast was also revised from 9 percent to 12 percent.
CENTRAL BANK INFLATION TARGETS
2024 midpoint: 44 percent
2024 upper limit: 46 percent
2024 lower limit: 42 percent
2025 midpoint: 21 percent
2025 upper limit: 26 percent
2025 lower limit: 16 percent
WHAT WILL THE 6-MONTH INFLATION BE?
The 10-month inflation was calculated to be 39.77 percent. For the midpoint of the Central Bank's inflation forecast of 44 percent, inflation needs to occur at a monthly rate of 1.13 percent over the next two months. In this case, the 6-month inflation will rise to 14.60 percent.
For the upper limit of the target, which is 46 percent, inflation is expected to hover around 2.13 percent in the remaining months. If this scenario occurs, the 6-month inflation will rise to 16.88 percent.
HOW MUCH WILL RETIREES RECEIVE AS AN INCREASE?
Worker retirees receive an increase based on the 6-month inflation rate. If the Central Bank's target of 44 percent holds, retirees will receive a 14.60 percent increase.
If the upper band of the target is realized, the increase rate will be 16.88 percent. If inflation is 2.5 percent in November and December, the salary increase will reach 17.73 percent.
WILL THE INFLATION DIFFERENCE BE ADDED TO CIVIL SERVANT SALARIES?
Civil servants and civil servant retirees received a 10 percent contractual increase in July. They will obtain an inflation difference exceeding this rate in the 6-month inflation.
Additionally, a 6 percent increase arising from the collective agreement will be added to the inflation difference. As of October, civil servants have obtained an inflation difference of 1.87.
INCREASE SCENARIO FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND CIVIL SERVANT RETIREES
If the Central Bank's target of 44 percent holds, the inflation difference will be 4.18 percent. The increase rate for civil servants and civil servant retirees will be 10.44 percent.
If the upper band of the target is realized, civil servants will obtain an inflation difference of 6.26 percent. The increase rate arising from the 6-month inflation will be 12.64 percent.
If inflation is 2.5 percent in the remaining months, the inflation difference will rise to 7 percent, and the increase rate will reach 13.46 percent.
WILL THE LOWEST RETIREMENT SALARY INCREASE?
The increase rate arising from the 6-month inflation is applied to the base salary. The lowest retirement salary was set at a minimum of 12,500 lira as of July. Despite the inflation increase, monthly salaries below this amount were adjusted to 12,500 lira. According to current figures, 3 million 703 thousand 180 people receive the lowest retirement salary.
For the lowest retirement salary to increase, a regulation from the Parliament is required. The figure determined by the economic management is presented to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey as a bill. Therefore, the increase rate arising from inflation does not affect the lowest retirement salary.
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