13.06.2026 11:11
While absolute nullity crisis and congress debates continue in CHP, it has been revealed that ABB President Mansur Yavas made a critical calculation based on 50%+1 for his presidential candidacy. It was learned that Yavas, who has preferred to remain silent and step back for now in the face of Kilicdaroglu's moves and possible new party scenarios, will map out his roadmap based on concrete field studies and survey results to avoid wear and tear.
The Republican People's Party (CHP) is experiencing its most turbulent days in history following the "absolute nullity" decision that has sparked debates over its charter and congress. As tensions rise within the party due to the current administration's response to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's calls for a congress, citing a "precautionary measure," attention has turned to Mansur Yavaş, the Mayor of Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB), one of the names most strongly mentioned among the CHP's possible presidential candidates.
In his speech at the Ankara gathering, Mansur Yavaş stated that "rather than being in a situation that drains people's hope, he would even leave politics." It has emerged that behind the scenes, he is working on a highly sensitive mathematical formula to secure victory.
YAVAŞ'S FORMULA: 50%+1
According to an article by journalist Aytunç Erkin; Mansur Yavaş, who is said to be weary of the exhausting infighting within the CHP and considering stepping back to focus entirely on Ankara, is actually making a key calculation for his presidential candidacy. Seeing that reaching the goal with a divided structure is impossible, Yavaş's primary target is to achieve 50%+1.
KILIÇDAROĞLU CONCERN
The biggest question mark for Yavaş is how the base would react if he were the candidate of a divided CHP... Calculating that staying within a structure led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu would create significant pressure from the base, Yavaş fears that potential backlash against Kılıçdaroğlu would disrupt his candidacy math. Even if starting with the party's current solid vote base of 33-35%, it is calculated that at least an additional 15% electoral support is absolutely necessary to win.
SECOND SCENARIO ON THE TABLE: POSSIBILITY OF A NEW PARTY
The second critical stage in Mansur Yavaş's key calculation is the possibility of forming a new party. The political line of this new structure and its degree of closeness or distance from Ekrem İmamoğlu will directly affect the equation. According to engineering calculations; if the new party manages to capture all of the CHP's votes, Yavaş will still need to seek an additional 15% external support. However, if they proceed with a weaker party stuck around the 25% band, they would then need at least an additional 25% entirely new voter support to win the election.
WILL STEP BACK AND WATCH DEVELOPMENTS
In this complex political climate, Mansur Yavaş's short-term strategy has also become clear. It is noted that Yavaş will take a step back these days and watch developments from Ankara from a distance. An important CHP staffer evaluating the process shed light on why Yavaş prefers to remain silent, saying, "Mansur Yavaş should not get worn out during this process. If he gets worn out too, the 2028 process would become even more challenging."
WILL FOCUS ON SURVEY RESULTS
Mansur Yavaş and his team will focus entirely on field work and survey results in the coming days. Closely monitoring public opinion and evaluating the emerging data, Yavaş will shape his final roadmap for the future based on these concrete figures.