05.04.2025 16:21
The UK-based banking giant HSBC made an important prediction regarding Turkey's economic and political outlook. Highlighting the conflicts surrounding Turkey, HSBC pointed out the opportunities.
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In an environment where hot conflicts are on one side and trade wars are intensifying on the other, HSBC analysts made a striking comment. The bank analysts, who drew attention to Turkey's defense industry and construction sectors, highlighted the opportunities awaiting Turkey in both Ukraine and Syria.
HSBC LISTED THE OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD FOR TURKEY
In HSBC's analysis, the experts whose opinions were included stated that Turkey's strategic position is in a position to benefit from potential reconstruction efforts in regions such as Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. "To illustrate the magnitude of the reconstruction need: while the post-war reconstruction cost of Lebanon could be around 25 billion dollars, this figure for Syria ranges between 400 billion and 1 trillion dollars," the statements noted. Additionally, it was pointed out that in the pre-war period, in 2010, 15% of Turkey's cement exports were made to Syria, while this rate has now dropped to 4%.
HSBC emphasized that Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan maintain strong relations with both Russia and Ukraine. "If a lasting ceasefire is achieved, Turkey could benefit from reconstruction projects, the cost of which the World Bank predicts will exceed 500 billion dollars. This will also be positive for construction-related sectors such as cement and steel producers."
"EUROPE'S DEFENSE DEMAND WILL BENEFIT TURKEY"
Another important sub-sector is the defense industry. According to HSBC analysts, the European Union's strong efforts to increase defense budgets will benefit this sector. Turkey's defense and aerospace exports are expected to reach 7.1 billion dollars in 2024, increasing by 29%. "Despite short-term challenges, we believe the fundamental long-term catalyst for Turkish stocks remains valid: strong commitment to traditional economic policies... We see opportunities in this volatile environment and continue to maintain our high position in Turkey. Additionally, in terms of growth outlook, aerospace continues to be one of the sectors we like the most in Turkey," they evaluated. HSBC reminded that Turkey expects to host 65 million visitors this year, while this figure is 62.3 million in 2024. It was noted that the reopening of some key markets such as Russia, Ukraine, and Israel would also have a supportive effect on foreign visitor traffic.
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