The damage caused by FETÖ to the Turkish economy has been calculated.

The operations of December 17-25, which targeted the government by FETÖ, and the treacherous coup attempt on July 15, which was planned to seize control of the country but ultimately failed, had a heavy financial cost on the Turkish economy. Under normal circumstances, these two events could deeply affect a country's economy, but after them, the Turkish economy quickly recovered with successful policies implemented. The damage caused by these two events in the economy was rapidly mitigated by the government's rational and proactive steps.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated at the Ambassadors Conference on January 7, 2015, "With the most modest calculation, the financial cost of the December 17 and 25 coup attempts to Turkey was 120 billion dollars. If they had succeeded, if they could have made the prime minister 'the prime minister of the time' as they intended, believe me, this cost would have been many times higher."

ONLY THE JULY 15 COUP ATTEMPT COST 400 BILLION DOLLARS

There were sharp declines in the stock market, which saw record levels. After the December 17-25 operations, the exchange rate of the dollar began to rise. The dollar/TL, which closed at 1.94 on December 16, 2013, ended the year at 2.15 as the operations targeting the government began. During this period, when the effects of the operations in the economic field began to gradually emerge, global investors' eyes were also turned to developments in Turkey. These developments caused the dollar/TL to enter an upward trend. The exchange rate approached 2.30 in March 2014.

THE STOCK MARKET CRASHED, INTEREST RATES ROSE

The negative effects of the operations on the economy were also seriously reflected in the capital markets. During this period, the BIST 100 index, which reached its historical peak at 93,178.87 points, closed at 67,801.73 points on the last trading day of 2013. Additionally, the state borrowing interest rate in Turkey, which fell to 4.61%, rose to around 12% in March 2014.

In March 2014, Numan Kurtulmuş, who was then the Deputy Chairman of the AK Party, stated at an event that they were closely monitoring the effects of the parallel structure's treacherous operations on the economy, particularly how much and in what way the December 17 operation affected the economy day by day.

Kurtulmuş said, "It is necessary to express that those who want to destabilize the Turkish economy by using these events as an excuse have made a very serious contribution to this."

Kurtulmuş emphasized that the operations had a significant impact in Turkey, pointing out that one of these was the rise in exchange rates. He noted that exchange rates rose to 2.21 and 2.23 in March of the following year, stating, "This is an extraordinarily serious increase."

Kurtulmuş mentioned that the other effect was the rise in interest rates, explaining that while the state's borrowing interest rate had historically fallen to its lowest level of 4.61% in mid-May, it rose to around 12% in March 2014, and that "this interest issue was raised from around 7.8 before December 17 to 12 under great pressure. Therefore, there was a significant increase in interest rates, almost 2-3 times."

THE ECONOMY AVOIDED TECHNICAL RECESSION IN 2016

On the first trading day after July 15, 2016, the BIST 100 index experienced one of its sharpest declines in history, dropping by 7.08%, and this downward trend continued for a week.

After losing 13.4% on a weekly basis and falling to 70,426 points, the BIST 100 index quickly recovered its losses in the following weeks, thanks to the proactive steps taken by the Capital Markets Board (CMB) and Borsa Istanbul, as well as the economic management.

Although exchange rates and bond yields rose sharply in the week following the coup attempt, the measures taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the calming statements from the economic management reassured investors and halted the flight from Turkish lira (TL) assets.

Although the Turkish economy contracted by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2016, it managed to grow again in the fourth quarter, technically avoiding recession and shaking off the negative effects of the coup attempt.

In the second half of 2016, foreign investors, who were reluctant to buy shares in Borsa Istanbul after the treacherous coup attempt, began to purchase shares strongly in 2017, completing the year with a net purchase of 1 billion 781 million dollars, thanks to the confidence established in the economy and monetary policy.

MARKETS FACED CHALLENGES DUE TO THE COUP ATTEMPT

In 2016, following FETÖ's treacherous coup attempt, the markets entered a challenging period due to the sudden increase in risk perception. The increased risks due to the extraordinary situation in the country negatively affected economic indicators, with the first signs seen in the exchange rate.

On July 14, 2016, the dollar/TL closed at 2.8778, but following the news of FETÖ's treacherous coup attempt on July 15, it rose by 5.1% to 3.0250 in international markets, following a selling trend.

The closure of international markets due to the intervening weekend and the swift suppression of the coup attempt prevented further deterioration of the indicators.

On the Monday following the largely suppressed treacherous coup attempt, the BIST 100 index finished the day down 7.08% at 76,957.61 points compared to the closing on Friday, July 15. The index continued its downward trend throughout the week, closing with a loss of 13.39%.

"THE COST OF THE COUP ATTEMPT EXCEEDED 400 BILLION DOLLARS"

Prof. Dr. Sefer Şener, a faculty member at Istanbul University, pointed out that the direct cost of the coup to the country's economy was approximately 160 billion dollars, while the indirect cost was much higher.

He noted that the per capita cost of the coup attempt could have exceeded 2,000 dollars, and that the total indirect cost to the country's economy surpassed 400 billion dollars, stating that credit rating agencies quickly downgraded their ratings following the coup attempt, but argued that these downgrades were unnecessary due to the rapid recovery in the economy after the coup.

Şener expressed that there was a noticeable slowdown in direct foreign capital inflows to Turkey following the coup attempt, indicating that this amount, which was 16 billion dollars in 2016, decreased to 8.6 billion dollars by 2019.

He noted that the decrease in direct foreign capital inflows due to the coup attempt also led to a decline in per capita national income, stating that while per capita income reached 12,582 dollars in 2013, it fell to 8,600 dollars by 2020 due to the coup attempt, but by 2023, it was able to reach 13,243 dollars again.

CUMULATIVE DAMAGE IS MUCH GREATER THAN CALCULATED

Considering the cumulative growth process, Şener emphasized that the per capita income, which was targeted to exceed approximately 19,600 dollars last year, remained around 13,000 dollars, stating, "The coup process has caused a loss of 10 years in terms of per capita income losses."

Şener stated that direct foreign investments, which were 19.3 billion dollars in 2015, fell to 7.7 billion dollars in 2020 due to the coup attempt, and that last year they only managed to reach 10.7 billion dollars.

Şener expressed that "The coup attempt has seriously damaged Turkey's potential to attract investments and its investment image."

Pointing out that the ratio of the central government's budget deficit to GDP was around 1% in 2015, and that this ratio rose to 3.2% in 2020, Şener noted that the FETÖ coup attempt decreased efficiency in the country's economy and increased costs.

Şener reported that as credit rating agencies' downgrades were added to Turkey being placed on the gray list, the country's international economic image weakened, and considering the degenerative effect of the coup attempt on institutions and employees, the economic cost to Turkey is much higher.